国新国证期货早报-20260119

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on January 16, 2026 - A-share market: The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4101.91, down 0.26%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14281.08, down 0.18%; the ChiNext Index closed at 3361.02, down 0.20%. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 3056.8 billion yuan, an increase of 118 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - Index performance: The CSI 300 Index closed at 4731.87, down 19.56 [2] 2. Futures Market Performance 2.1 Stock Index Futures - The CSI 300 Index showed a weakening trend on January 16, closing at 4731.87, a decrease of 19.56 from the previous day [2] 2.2 Coke and Coking Coal Futures - Coke: The weighted index of coke futures closed at 1718.8, down 26.2. Rising raw coal prices have increased the production costs of coke enterprises, leading to a contraction in industry profits. Some regions have implemented environmental protection restrictions, slowing down the start - up of coke enterprises. The downstream demand for coke is weak due to high inventory and limited profits in the steel industry [2][4] - Coking coal: The weighted index of coking coal futures closed at 1176.0 yuan, down 16.6. The price of Shanxi main coking coal is 1352 (+24) yuan/ton. The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 65 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines is 88.5%, a 3.1% increase from the previous week [3][4] 2.3 Sugar Futures - The number of sugar ships waiting to be loaded at Brazilian ports has increased, and the market is boosted by the expectation of a short - term recovery in demand. The Zhengzhou sugar futures contract 2605 showed a slight decline in the night session on January 16 [4] 2.4 Rubber Futures - Due to long - position liquidation, the Shanghai rubber futures showed a downward trend in the night session on January 16. As of December 16, the inventory of natural rubber at the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 1900 tons to 122850 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 3900 tons to 108390 tons [5] 2.5 Palm Oil Futures - On January 16, the palm oil futures market rebounded. The main contract P2605 closed at 8674, up 1.12%. From January 1 - 15, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 18.24% month - on - month, and the export volume increased by 17.53 - 18.64% [5] 2.6 Soybean Meal Futures - Internationally, the CBOT soybean main contract closed at 1056.25 cents per bushel on January 16, up 0.36%. The USDA January supply - demand report showed a pattern of loose supply and declining exports. Domestically, the main soybean meal contract M2505 closed at 2727 yuan/ton, down 0.47%. The supply in the first quarter will remain loose [5] 2.7 Live Pig Futures - On January 16, the main live pig contract LH2603 closed at 11950 yuan/ton, down 0.5%. The current supply of live pigs is tight in the short - term due to low slaughter enthusiasm, but there is still supply pressure in the future. The demand for live pigs is weakening in the south and showing some recovery in the north, but the overall peak - season consumption effect is weakening [5] 2.8 Copper Futures - The main Shanghai copper futures contract continued to adjust in the night session on January 16, closing at 100280 yuan/ton, down 1.56%. The strengthening of the US dollar index, weak domestic demand, and a decline in market sentiment are the main driving factors [5] 2.9 Other Futures - Cotton: The main Zhengzhou cotton futures contract closed at 14538 yuan/ton on January 16. The inventory increased by 337 lots from the previous day. Downstream yarn mills purchase as needed [6] - Logs: The main log futures contract 2603 closed at 778.5 on January 16. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained stable. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship [6] - Iron Ore: The main iron ore futures contract 2605 closed down 0.49% at 812 yuan on January 16. The shipment from Australia and Brazil decreased, the arrival volume increased, and the port inventory continued to accumulate [6] - Asphalt: The main asphalt futures contract 2603 closed down 1.48% at 3130 yuan on January 16. The production has increased, the inventory has continued to accumulate, but the overall supply pressure is not large, and the demand is stable [6] - Steel: The winter storage mentality of the steel market is cautious. Most of the winter storage policies announced so far are post - settlement, and the willingness of traders to store is low [6] - Alumina: The raw material bauxite price has declined, and the domestic port inventory has increased slightly. The domestic alumina supply is still relatively high, and the demand is stable [6] - Aluminum: The supply of electrolytic aluminum is generally stable, and the demand is cautious due to the influence of the off - season and high prices [6][7]