橡胶：震荡偏弱20260119

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the rubber industry is "shockingly weak" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The rubber market shows a shockingly weak trend, with prices and trading volumes generally declining. The tire industry had a restorative growth in production capacity utilization in the first half of January, but there are issues such as flat shipments and rising inventory, especially significant inventory pressure on all - steel tires [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market: The daily and night - session closing prices of the rubber main contract decreased, with the daily - session closing price dropping from 15,995 yuan/ton to 15,835 yuan/ton, and the night - session closing price dropping from 15,950 yuan/ton to 15,750 yuan/ton. Trading volume decreased by 17,091 hands, and the open interest of the 05 contract decreased by 7,441 hands. The warehouse receipt quantity increased by 2,800 tons, and the net short position of the top 20 members decreased by 1,563 hands [1] - Spread Data: The basis of spot - futures main contract increased by 60, and the basis of mixed - futures main contract increased by 90. The monthly spread of RU05 - RU09 remained unchanged [1] - Spot Market: The external quotes of various rubber varieties decreased, such as RSS3 dropping from 2,170 dollars/ton to 2,160 dollars/ton. The prices of substitutes like Qilu butadiene styrene and Qilu cis - butadiene also decreased. The prices of imported rubber in the Qingdao market generally declined [1] 2. Industry News - In the first half of January, the tire industry's production capacity utilization rate had a restorative growth. The production capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.53%, a month - on - month increase of 8.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.03 percentage points. The production capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.02%, a month - on - month increase of 7.52 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.21 percentage points [2][3] - The tire industry's shipments are flat, and inventory is rising. As of January 15, the average inventory turnover days of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 47.92 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.56 days, and that of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 46.1 days, a month - on - month increase of 1.48 days. All - steel tires are under greater inventory pressure [3]