工业硅：逢高布空为主，多晶硅：关注消息面影响

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Short positions are recommended on price rallies [1] - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to the impact of news [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including price, volume, inventory, and profit. It also reports on relevant macro and industry news and evaluates the trend strength of both products [2][4] 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market: For industrial silicon, the Si2605 closing price was 8,605 yuan/ton, with a volume of 281,253 lots and an open interest of 238,869 lots. For polysilicon, the PS2605 closing price was 50,200 yuan/ton, with a volume of 21,717 lots and an open interest of 46,220 lots [2] - Basis: Industrial silicon's spot premium against different benchmarks showed various changes, while polysilicon's spot premium against N - type re - investment was +5150 yuan/ton [2] - Prices: The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon was 8700 yuan/ton, Yunnan Si4210 was 10000 yuan/ton, and polysilicon N - type re - investment material was 54850 yuan/ton [2] - Profits: Silicon factory profits in Xinjiang and Yunnan were - 2526.5 yuan/ton and - 5749 yuan/ton respectively. Polysilicon enterprise profit was 10.4 yuan/kg [2] - Inventory: Industrial silicon's social inventory was 55.5 million tons, enterprise inventory was 20.8 million tons, and total industry inventory was 76.3 million tons. Polysilicon's factory inventory was 32.1 million tons [2] - Raw Material Costs: The prices of silicon ore, washed coal, petroleum coke, electrodes, etc. in different regions were provided, showing little change overall [2] - Photovoltaic - Related Products: The prices and profit conditions of silicon wafers, battery cells, components, photovoltaic glass, and EVA in the photovoltaic industry were presented, with some products showing price changes [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On January 14, 2026, South Korea's polysilicon leader OCI Holding announced that its subsidiary OCI ONE's 2.7GW silicon wafer factory in Vietnam had started production. The factory was acquired from Chinese photovoltaic enterprise Boda Xinneng in October 2025, with OCI ONE holding 65% of the shares. Currently, the factory is in the initial stage of capacity ramp - up and has not entered the shipping or delivery stage [2][4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - Industrial silicon trend intensity: - 1, indicating a bearish view; Polysilicon trend intensity: 0, indicating a neutral view [4]