尿素：震荡整理

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a rating of "Oscillating and Consolidating" for urea [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the sentiment of bulk commodities has weakened, the spot trading of urea has weakened, and the futures price has reached the policy pressure level, so the urea price will experience a short - term correction. However, due to the strong expectation of agricultural demand, the correction range is expected to be limited, and the price will still be strong in the medium - term. The demand - side shows that continuous procurement by reserves and the grassroots has led to a stage improvement in the urea fundamentals. Whether the driving force can continue to rise depends on the continuity of mid - stream restocking. For the 05 contract, the fundamental pressure level is around 1830 yuan/ton, mainly the policy pressure line. Supported by the strong expectation of the agricultural demand peak in 2026, the fundamental support level is expected to be around 1700 - 1720 yuan/ton [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures Market - For the urea main contract (05 contract): the closing price decreased from 1801 yuan/ton to 1791 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10; the settlement price decreased from 1805 yuan/ton to 1798 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7; the trading volume increased from 144,515 lots to 156,787 lots, an increase of 12,272; the open interest decreased from 250,303 lots to 242,992 lots, a decrease of 7,311; the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 13,355 tons; the trading volume increased from 521,622 ten - thousand yuan to 563,750 ten - thousand yuan, an increase of 42,128 ten - thousand yuan; the basis in Shandong area increased from - 41 to - 21, an increase of 20; the basis of Fengxi - futures price (with a freight of about 100 yuan/ton) remained unchanged at - 151; the basis of Dongguang - futures price (the cheapest deliverable) remained unchanged at - 51; the spread between UR05 and UR09 decreased from 29 to 28, a decrease of 1 [2] 3.1.2 Spot Market - Urea factory prices: Henan Xinlianxin remained unchanged at 1760 yuan/ton; Yankuang Xinjiang remained unchanged at 1320 yuan/ton; Shandong Ruixing increased from 1715 yuan/ton to 1745 yuan/ton, an increase of 30; Shanxi Fengxi remained unchanged at 1640 yuan/ton; Hebei Dongguang remained unchanged at 1740 yuan/ton; Jiangsu Linggu increased from 1790 yuan/ton to 1800 yuan/ton, an increase of 10. Trader prices: in Shandong area, it increased from 1760 yuan/ton to 1770 yuan/ton, an increase of 10; in Shanxi area, it increased from 1630 yuan/ton to 1640 yuan/ton, an increase of 10. Supply - side indicators: the operating rate increased from 84.72% to 85.19%, an increase of 0.47%; the daily output increased from 199,480 tons to 200,580 tons, an increase of 1,100 [2] 3.2 Industry News - As of January 14, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 986,100 tons, a decrease of 36,100 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 3.53%. During this period, the domestic urea enterprise inventory decreased slightly. Recently, the urea market has fluctuated narrowly. The downstream compound fertilizer industrial demand has continued to advance, and the local agricultural demand has begun to increase. Some urea enterprises have achieved a balance between production and sales, and some have accelerated their shipment, leading to a decline in inventory. Provinces with decreased enterprise inventory include Anhui, Hebei, Heilongjiang, Hubei, Inner Mongolia, Shandong, Sichuan, and Chongqing. Provinces with increased enterprise inventory include Hainan, Henan, Jiangxi, Liaoning, Qinghai, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Xinjiang, and Yunnan [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of urea is 0, indicating a neutral trend [4]