烧碱：近月压力持续

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of caustic soda is -1, indicating a relatively bearish view [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - Caustic soda prices have been continuously declining due to cost reduction and the collapse of supply - demand. The near - term pressure persists, and the delivery pressure of the 02 and 03 contracts is still significant. The high - inventory situation makes the price - reduction trend difficult to reverse before the Spring Festival. However, the long - term contracts (04, 05 and subsequent contracts) may face a situation of rising costs and large - scale supply cuts, so short - selling these contracts requires caution [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - The 03 contract futures price is 2006, the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda spot price in Shandong is 660, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price is 2063, and the basis is 57 [1]. 3.2 Spot News - The purchase price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda by major alumina manufacturers in Shandong has been reduced by 15 yuan since January 18, with the ex - factory price at 630 yuan/ton [1][2]. 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - Demand Side: The oversupply situation in the alumina market has not changed in the short term, and the expectation of production cuts suppresses the stockpiling of caustic soda. Non - aluminum downstream industries face a seasonal decline in rigid demand, and exports are under pressure, so overall demand lacks support [2]. - Supply Side: Winter is the off - season for chlor - alkali enterprise maintenance. Manufacturers are unlikely to significantly reduce production until losses reach the cash - flow cost [2].