格林大华期货早盘提示：棉花-20260119

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the cotton industry in the agricultural, forestry, and livestock sector is "Bullish" [2]. 2. Core View of the Report - ICE U.S. cotton futures stabilized on Friday. The main contract 03 settled at 64.66 cents, with a daily decline of 0.08% but a weekly increase of 0.39% supported by the neutral - positive USDA monthly supply - demand report. Zhengzhou cotton rose and then pulled back. Although downstream textile enterprises are facing the Spring Festival holiday, due to the expected limited pull - back during the new capacity release stage and the expectation of tight supply after the holiday, Zhengzhou cotton generally maintains a bullish outlook [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - ICE March contract settled at 64.66, down 5 points; May at 66.23, down 4 points; July at 67.65, down 4 points, with about 33,000 contracts traded. Zhengzhou cotton had a total trading volume of 404,268 and an open interest of 1,158,946. The settlement prices were 14,710 for January, 14,640 for May, and 14,790 for September [2]. Important Information - In November, Bangladesh imported about 121,000 tons of cotton, a 9.6% increase from October (110,000 tons) and a 4.8% increase year - on - year (116,000 tons). Brazilian cotton accounted for 27% of total imports, West African cotton 26%, and Indian cotton 21% [2]. - As of the week of January 10, Egyptian cotton net export contracts were 3,783 tons, a significant increase from the previous week (1,075 tons). New contracts mainly came from China (2,427 tons) and India (853 tons). The shipment volume was 25 tons, a significant decrease from the previous week (1,651 tons). The average price of Giza 94 new cotton was 146 cents/pound, up 1 cent/pound from the previous week [2]. - Recently, the cotton - growing areas in Pakistan have been cool and dry. The winter rainfall is still below the average. Sporadic seed cotton is continuously transported to ginning mills. The total output of new cotton in Pakistan is expected to be between 1.085 and 1.124 million tons. The price of seed cotton is stable, ranging from 6,500 to 8,200 rupees per 40 kilograms depending on the quality [2]. - According to the USDA's January 2026 U.S. cotton supply - demand forecast report, the planting area in the U.S. in 2025/26 is 56.345 million mu, a decrease of 82,000 mu from the previous month. Due to the abandonment rate dropping to 15.9% (a decrease of 4.8 percentage points), the harvested area increased to 47.376 million mu, an increase of 2.647 million mu from the previous month. The expected yield per mu is 64 kg, a decrease of 5.5 kg from the previous month. The expected output is 3.03 million tons, a decrease of 76,000 tons. The expected consumption is 348,000 tons, with a decrease of 5.9% from the previous month. The expected export volume is 2.656 million tons, the same as the previous month. The ending inventory decreased by 65,000 tons to 914,000 tons [2]. Market Logic - ICE U.S. cotton futures stabilized on Friday. The main 03 contract settled at 64.66 cents, with a daily decline of 0.08% but a weekly increase of 0.39% supported by the neutral - positive USDA monthly supply - demand report. Zhengzhou cotton rose and then pulled back. Although downstream textile enterprises are facing the Spring Festival holiday, due to the expected limited pull - back during the new capacity release stage and the expectation of tight supply after the holiday, Zhengzhou cotton generally maintains a bullish outlook [2]. Trading Strategy - Build long positions for the 05 contract below 14,500 yuan/ton and set a profit - taking target at 15,000 yuan/ton [2].