国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20260119

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report The report offers insights and analyses on various commodities, including their current market conditions, trends, and influencing factors. It provides price data, trading volumes, inventory levels, and relevant news for each commodity, along with trend strength ratings to assist investors in making decisions. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - Gold: Safe - haven sentiment has rebounded. The prices of Shanghai Gold 2602 and Comex Gold 2602 decreased, while the trading volume and open interest also declined. The trend strength is 1 [5]. - Silver: There are fluctuations in tariff expectations. The prices of Shanghai Silver 2602 and Comex Silver 2602 decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed accordingly. The trend strength is 1 [5]. - Platinum: There was a significant outflow from ETFs, putting pressure on the upside. The prices of platinum futures and related spot markets showed different trends, and the trend strength is 0 [24]. - Palladium: It follows a range - bound oscillation. The prices of palladium futures and related spot markets changed, and the trend strength is 0 [24]. Base Metals - Copper: The strengthening of the US dollar has put pressure on prices. The prices of Shanghai Copper and LME Copper decreased, and the trading volume and open interest also changed. The trend strength is 0 [8]. - Zinc: It is in a range - bound oscillation. The prices of Shanghai Zinc and LME Zinc decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed. The trend strength is 1 [11]. - Lead: The decrease in overseas inventories limits the price decline. The prices of Shanghai Lead and LME Lead decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed. The trend strength is 0 [14]. - Tin: Attention should be paid to resource stockpiling. The prices of Shanghai Tin and LME Tin decreased significantly, and the trading volume and open interest also changed. The trend strength is 0 [18]. - Aluminum: It is grinding at a high level. The prices of Shanghai Aluminum and LME Aluminum decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed. The trend strength is 1 [21]. - Alumina: It is in a resonant downward trend. The prices of Shanghai Alumina decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed. The trend strength is - 1 [21]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: It follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum. The prices of the alloy decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed. The trend strength is 1 [21]. - Nickel: Repeated statements from Indonesia have disturbed market sentiment, leading to wide - range fluctuations in nickel prices. The prices of Shanghai Nickel and related spot markets changed, and the trend strength is 0 [28]. - Stainless Steel: The market is anchored to the contradictions in the ore end, and the increase in nickel - iron prices supports the center of gravity. The prices of stainless - steel futures and related spot markets changed, and the trend strength is 0 [28]. Energy and Chemicals - Lithium Carbonate: Spot purchases have increased, and attention should be paid to supply - side disturbances. The prices of lithium carbonate futures and related spot markets decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed. The trend strength is 0 [33]. - Industrial Silicon: Short - selling positions should be established on rallies. The prices of industrial silicon futures decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed. The trend strength is - 1 [36]. - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to the impact of news. The prices of polysilicon futures and related spot markets changed, and the trend strength is 0 [37]. - Iron Ore: The valuation is relatively high, and caution is advised when chasing the upside. The prices of iron - ore futures and related spot markets changed slightly, and the trend strength is 0 [40]. - Rebar: It is in a repeated oscillation. The prices of rebar futures and related spot markets changed slightly, and the trend strength is 0 [42]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: It is in a repeated oscillation. The prices of hot - rolled coil futures and related spot markets changed slightly, and the trend strength is 0 [42]. - Silicon Ferrosilicon: The raw material cost has weakened, leading to wide - range oscillations. The prices of silicon ferrosilicon futures and related spot markets decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed. The trend strength is 0 [47]. - Manganese Silicon: The demand side has tightened slightly, leading to wide - range oscillations. The prices of manganese silicon futures and related spot markets decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed. The trend strength is 0 [47]. - Coke: Downstream accidents have disturbed the market, leading to high - level oscillations. The prices of coke futures and related spot markets decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed. The trend strength is 0 [51]. - Coking Coal: It is in a high - level oscillation. The prices of coking coal futures and related spot markets decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed. The trend strength is 0 [51]. - Steam Coal: The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the price will be adjusted in a narrow range in the short term. The market is affected by factors such as import volume and policy. The trend strength is not explicitly stated [55]. - Rubber: It is in a weak oscillation. The prices of rubber futures and related spot markets decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed. The trend strength is - 1 [60]. - Synthetic Rubber: It is in a high - level oscillation. The prices of synthetic rubber futures and related spot markets decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed. The trend strength is 0 [63]. - LLDPE: The production of standard products remains at a low level, and spot trading has weakened. The prices of LLDPE futures decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed. The trend strength is - 1 [66]. - PP: The monomer prices continue to diverge, and the cost support for PP is relatively strong. The prices of PP futures decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed. The trend strength is - 1 [69]. - Caustic Soda: The near - month pressure continues. The prices of caustic soda futures and related spot markets decreased, and the trend strength is - 1 [72]. - Pulp: It is in a weak oscillation. The prices of pulp futures and related spot markets decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed. The trend strength is - 1 [78]. - Glass: The price of the original sheet is stable. The prices of glass futures and related spot markets changed slightly, and the trend strength is 0 [81]. - Methanol: It is in an oscillatory operation. The prices of methanol futures and related spot markets decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed. The trend strength is 0 [84]. - Urea: It is in an oscillatory consolidation. The prices of urea futures and related spot markets decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed. The trend strength is 0 [89]. - Styrene: It is in a short - term oscillation. The prices of styrene futures and related spot markets changed, and the trend strength is 0 [93]. - Soda Ash: There are few changes in the spot market. The prices of soda ash futures and related spot markets changed slightly, and the trend strength is 0 [96]. - LPG: The short - term supply is tight, and attention should be paid to the realization of the downward driving force. The prices of LPG futures and related spot markets decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed. The trend strength is 0 [99]. - Propylene: After a rapid increase in the spot price, the upward driving force has weakened. The prices of propylene futures and related spot markets decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed. The trend strength is 0 [99]. - PVC: It is in a weak oscillation. The prices of PVC futures and related spot markets changed, and the trend strength is - 1 [107]. - Fuel Oil: It is in a narrow - range oscillation, and the upward trend has paused. The prices of fuel oil futures and related spot markets decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed. The trend strength is 0 [110]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: There was a slight rebound at night, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market is temporarily stable. The prices of low - sulfur fuel oil futures and related spot markets decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed. The trend strength is 0 [110]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: There is frequent news about bio - diesel, leading to increased fluctuations in the oil market. The prices of palm oil futures and related spot markets changed, and the trend strength is 0 [138]. - Soybean Oil: There is a lack of positive news about US soybeans, limiting the rebound height. The prices of soybean oil futures and related spot markets changed, and the trend strength is 0 [138]. - Soybean Meal: With the uncertainty removed, the price may rebound. The prices of soybean meal futures and related spot markets changed, and the trend strength is + 1 [144]. - Soybean: It is in an oscillation. The prices of soybean futures and related spot markets changed, and the trend strength is 0 [144]. - Corn: Attention should be paid to the spot market. The prices of corn futures and related spot markets changed slightly, and the trend strength is 0 [147]. - Sugar: It is in a low - level consolidation. The prices of sugar futures and related spot markets changed, and the trend strength is - 1 [151]. - Cotton: Waiting for the end of the adjustment. The prices of cotton futures and related spot markets decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed. The trend strength is 0 [156]. - Egg: The sentiment for the far - month contracts has weakened. The prices of egg futures and related spot markets changed, and the trend strength is 0 [160]. - Live Pig: Waiting for the confirmation of peak - season demand. The prices of live - pig futures and related spot markets changed, and the trend strength is 0 [163]. - Peanut: It is in an oscillatory operation. The prices of peanut futures and related spot markets changed, and the trend strength is 0 [168]. Shipping - Container Freight Index (European Line): It is in a weak oscillation. The prices of container freight index futures and related spot markets changed, and the trend strength is 0 [112]. Paper Products - Offset Printing Paper: Short positions should be closed at an appropriate time. The prices of offset printing paper futures and related spot markets changed, and the trend strength is - 1 [129]. Fibers - Staple Fiber: It is in a short - term oscillatory market, and the processing margin is at a low level. The prices of staple - fiber futures and related spot markets changed, and the trend strength is 0 [126]. - Bottle Chip: It is in a short - term oscillatory market. The prices of bottle - chip futures and related spot markets changed, and the trend strength is 0 [126]. Aromatics - Pure Benzene: It is mainly in a short - term oscillation. The prices of pure benzene futures and related spot markets changed, and the trend strength is 0 [134].