橡胶板块2026年1月第3周报-20260119

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The BR - RU spread is the best tool to reflect the supply difference in the rubber sector, offsetting most macro and consumption disturbances and highlighting the supply differences between synthetic and natural rubber [58]. - The ENSO index suggests that in the first half of 2026, natural rubber supply is likely to increase, putting downward pressure on RU. The fixed - asset investment in the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry indicates limited production pressure, and BR is expected to stabilize [58]. - As of the end of 2025, the absolute spread of BR - RU has reached a stage low. Before the third quarter of 2026, a strategy of going long on synthetic rubber and short on natural rubber is recommended [58]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Rubber Comprehensive Analysis - Spot Prices: The price center of RMB - denominated rubber has generally risen. The price of Shanghai full - latex increased by 115 yuan to 15,750 yuan/ton, a 0.74% increase. The price of Shandong STR20 mixed rubber rose by 166.5 yuan to 15,069 yuan/ton, a 1.12% increase. The price of North China BR9000 first rose rapidly and then fell, closing at 11,500 yuan/ton on Thursday, down 100 yuan from last Thursday, but the weekly average price of 11,510 yuan was still 230 yuan higher, and the year - on - year decline narrowed to around 17% [2]. - Supply: For natural rubber, domestic production areas have fully stopped tapping. Overseas, the tapping season in northern Thailand and Vietnam is coming to an end, and only southern Thailand is in the peak production stage, showing a pattern of "decreasing supply at home and increasing supply abroad". For cis - polybutadiene rubber, the average operating rate of domestic high - cis cis - polybutadiene plants was 75.9%, the same as last week. The overall output was stable [2]. - Demand: After the festival, the operating rate of tire factories increased, and rigid demand procurement rose. However, the rising price center suppressed buying sentiment, and there was only limited replenishment on dips during the week, with limited real - deal follow - up [3]. - Inventory: The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 1.96 million tons to 563,900 tons, a 3.6% increase. The inventory of cis - polybutadiene rubber in production enterprises decreased by 3.24% month - on - month, but the social inventory increased slightly. The overall inventory level was still lower than the same period last year [3]. 3.2 Strategy Recommendations - Single - sided Trading: Hold short positions in the RU main 05 contract, with the stop - loss price lowered to the recent high of 16,115 points. Try short positions in the NR main 03 contract at an appropriate time, with a stop - loss set at the recent high of 12,970 points. Try a small number of short positions in the BR main 03 contract, with a stop - loss set at the previous low of 11,945 points [4]. - Arbitrage: The spread of BR2603 - NR2603 (2 lots vs. 1 lot) closed at - 850 points. Adopt a wait - and - see approach and pay attention to the support at the recent low of - 945 points [4]. - Options: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [4]. 3.3 Synthetic Rubber Supply - Apparent Consumption: In November 2025, the apparent consumption of butadiene increased to 556,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.4%. The apparent consumption of cis - polybutadiene rubber decreased to 131,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. The net import volume of butadiene and cis - polybutadiene rubber decreased year - on - year, which was slightly positive for the BR - RU spread [14][16]. - Inventory: The domestic inventory of cis - polybutadiene rubber increased to 34,900 tons, a 5.50% month - on - month increase. Due to strong downstream resistance to high - price raw materials, the inventory of sample production enterprises and sample trading enterprises increased to varying degrees [18]. - Supply Scale and Cost Support: In December 2025, the apparent consumption of BR&BR (calculated) increased to 3.28 million tons. In January, the explicit inventory of BD&BR increased for five consecutive months to 47,000 tons. The combined figure of the above two items was 375,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.0%, which was positive for the BR - RU spread. In January, the price of Brent crude oil fell for four consecutive months to $60.8 per barrel, a year - on - year decrease of 25.4%, which was negative for the BR - RU spread [27]. - Capacity Utilization and Profit: The profit of the C4 extraction process was 2,376 yuan/ton, an increase of 234 yuan/ton from the previous period. The profit of the oxidative dehydrogenation process was 681 yuan/ton, an increase of 595 yuan/ton from the previous period. The theoretical production cost of cis - polybutadiene rubber increased significantly, and the production profit decreased [37]. - Processing Margin: In January, the margin of domestic butadiene oxidative dehydrogenation plants improved for two consecutive months to - 50 yuan/ton, and the margin of domestic butadiene C4 extraction method increased for two consecutive months to 1,877 yuan/ton. The domestic production margin of cis - polybutadiene rubber decreased for two consecutive months to 211 yuan/ton. The BD margin - BR margin was reported at + 0.17 million yuan/ton, a year - on - year decline of - 0.37 million yuan/ton, which was negative for the BR - RU spread [41][45]. - Margin Variance and Import Margin: In January, the FOB price of butadiene in South Korea and the CFR price in China both increased for two consecutive months. The margin of BD to South Korea was reported at - 35.0 US dollars/ton, a year - on - year increase of + 7.5 US dollars/ton, which was positive for the BR - RU spread. The variance of the three margins was reported at 7.3×10^5, a year - on - year decline of - 188.2%, which was negative for the BR - RU spread [52]. 3.4 Rubber Supply: Synthetic Rubber Production vs. Natural Rubber Climate - Although the valuation of the chemical industry has been under pressure due to oversupply during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, the BR - RU spread can reflect the supply difference in the rubber sector. The ENSO index is favorable for the increase of natural rubber supply in the first half of 2026, and the fixed - asset investment in the chemical industry indicates limited production pressure on synthetic rubber. Before the third quarter of 2026, a strategy of going long on synthetic rubber and short on natural rubber is recommended [58]. 3.5 Natural Rubber Supply: ANRPC Member Countries' Production and Export - In October, the total production of natural rubber in the ANRPC increased to 1.144 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.6% with a narrowing growth rate. The total export volume increased to 826,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.9% with a narrowing growth rate for four consecutive months [64]. 3.6 Micro - consumption - The average year - on - year production increase of automobiles in China and South Korea was 7.7%, which was positive for the single - sided trading of BR. In November, the export value of domestic tires increased to 1.82 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%, which was negative for the single - sided trading of BR [65][70]. 3.7 Micro - consumption: Tires - The semi - steel tire market was weak, with sufficient supply and mainly rigid - demand replenishment in the channel. The all - steel tire market continued to be weak, with low purchasing willingness among merchants. As of January 15, the average inventory turnover days of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 47.92 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.56 days and a year - on - year increase of 5.49 days. The average inventory turnover days of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 46.1 days, a month - on - month increase of 1.48 days and a year - on - year decrease of 1.56 days [77]. 3.8 Macro - consumption - In a series of data affecting the downstream consumption of the rubber sector, the data farther away from rubber had larger increases, while the data closer to rubber had not yet stabilized. For example, the CSI 1000 index declined for two consecutive months but still had a year - on - year increase, the global auto industry index rebounded for two consecutive months with a narrowing growth rate, the domestic rubber and plastic industry electricity consumption declined with a narrowing growth rate, and the cumulative production of domestic and foreign tires increased year - on - year with a marginal increase for two consecutive months [86].