观点与策略：国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品-20260119

Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil: With frequent news about bio - diesel, the volatility of edible oils has intensified [2][4]. - Soybean oil: There are insufficient themes for US soybeans, limiting the rebound height [2][4]. - Soybean meal: After the uncertainty is removed, the price may rebound [2][11]. - Soybean: The price will fluctuate [2][10]. - Corn: Attention should be paid to the spot market [2][13]. - Sugar: The price is in a low - level consolidation [2][17]. - Cotton: Wait for the end of the adjustment [2][22]. - Eggs: The sentiment for far - month contracts has weakened [2][26]. - Live pigs: Wait for the verification of peak - season demand [2][29]. - Peanuts: The price will move in a range [2][34]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Fundamental Data: Palm oil's day - trading closing price was 8,674 yuan/ton with a 1.12% increase, and night - trading closing price was 8,630 yuan/ton with a 0.51% decrease. Soybean oil's day - trading closing price was 8,016 yuan/ton with a 0.98% increase, and night - trading closing price was 7,996 yuan/ton with a 0.25% decrease [4]. - Macro and Industry News: From January 1 - 15, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 18.24% compared to the same period last month. The expected export volume from January 1 - 15, 2026, increased by 20.5% compared to the same period last month. The US has lifted the import ban on Malaysia's FGV Holdings. Brazil's 2025 soybean production was estimated at 166.05 million tons, a 14.6% year - on - year increase [5][6][7][8]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of palm oil is 0, and that of soybean oil is also 0 [9]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - Fundamental Data: DCE soybean meal 2605's day - trading closing price was 2,727 yuan/ton with a 0.44% decrease, and night - trading closing price was 2,722 yuan/ton with a 0.40% decrease. DCE soybean 2605's day - trading closing price was 4,324 yuan/ton with a 0.21% decrease, and night - trading closing price was 4,303 yuan/ton with a 0.74% decrease [10]. - Macro and Industry News: On January 16, CBOT soybean futures rose due to strong domestic soybean crushing and the strength of neighboring corn and wheat. However, Brazil's record - high soybean harvest will limit the upside of soybean prices. Canada and China reached a trade agreement including reducing rapeseed tariffs [10][12]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of soybean meal is +1, and that of soybean is 0 [12]. Corn - Fundamental Data: The day - trading closing price of C2603 was 2,281 yuan/ton with a 0.13% decrease, and night - trading closing price was 2,284 yuan/ton with a 0.13% increase. The day - trading closing price of C2605 was 2,277 yuan/ton with a 0.09% decrease, and night - trading closing price remained unchanged [14]. - Macro and Industry News: The northern corn bulk shipping port price was 2,280 - 2,290 yuan/ton, and the container first - class grain port price was 2,330 - 2,350 yuan/ton, remaining stable. The price in Guangdong Shekou decreased by 10 yuan/ton [15]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of corn is 0 [16]. Sugar - Fundamental Data: The raw sugar price was 14.96 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5,350 yuan/ton, and the futures main - contract price was 5,258 yuan/ton [17]. - Macro and Industry News: As of January 15, 2026, India's sugar production in the 25/26 season increased by 22% year - on - year. Brazil exported 291 million tons in December, a 2.9% increase. China imported 44 million tons of sugar in November, a 9 - million - ton decrease [17]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of sugar is - 1 [20]. Cotton - Fundamental Data: The day - trading closing price of CF2605 was 14,590 yuan/ton with a 0.58% decrease, and night - trading closing price was 14,535 yuan/ton with a 0.38% decrease. The day - trading closing price of CY2603 was 20,535 yuan/ton with a 0.63% decrease, and night - trading closing price was 20,525 yuan/ton with a 0.05% decrease [22]. - Macro and Industry News: The cotton spot sales basis is stable, and the freight for cotton out of Xinjiang has increased slightly. The price of pure - cotton yarn has declined slightly, and the downstream orders have improved slightly but are still limited [23]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of cotton is 0 [25]. Eggs - Fundamental Data: The closing price of egg 2602 was 3,026 yuan/500 kilograms with a 0.50% increase, and the closing price of egg 2603 was 3,072 yuan/500 kilograms with a 0.39% increase [26]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of eggs is 0 [27]. Live Pigs - Fundamental Data: The Henan spot price was 13,180 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price was 12,800 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong spot price was 13,060 yuan/ton. The closing price of live - pig 2603 was 12,010 yuan/ton, live - pig 2605 was 12,260 yuan/ton, and live - pig 2607 was 12,885 yuan/ton [31]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of live pigs is 0 [32]. Peanuts - Fundamental Data: The day - trading closing price of PK603 was 7,830 yuan/ton with a 0.10% decrease, and PK605 was 7,822 yuan/ton with a 0.10% decrease. The price of Xingcheng small - Japanese peanuts decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 8,600 yuan/ton [34]. - Spot Market Focus: In Henan, Nanyang Baisha peanuts were priced at 3.75 - 3.8 yuan, and Kaifeng large peanuts were 3.5 - 4.0 yuan. In Jilin, 308 peanuts were about 4.6 yuan. In Liaoning, 308 peanuts were 4.5 - 4.6 yuan, and the price of Fuxin small - Japanese peanuts was slightly stronger [35]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of peanuts is 0 [36].