Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since January, the spot price of eggs has risen by over 15%, and the futures market has also strengthened. The concentrated release of pre - Spring Festival stocking demand and the marginal shrinkage of supply have supported the market. However, the current inventory of laying hens is still relatively high, and potential supply pressure and post - holiday demand decline expectations may limit price increases. In the long - term, the core driver lies in the pace of production capacity reduction. The inventory of laying hens is expected to turn from an increase to a decrease year - on - year in the second quarter of this year, but short - term price increases face multiple constraints [9][60] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Trend Review (1) Futures Price - Last week, the main contract of egg futures changed to JD2603, with a volatile and slightly upward trend. As of the close on January 16, the main JD2603 contract was reported at 3072 yuan per 500 kilograms, up 0.39% [6][14] (2) Spot Price - Last week, egg prices in production and sales areas rose together, and the regional price difference continued to narrow. As of January 16, 2026, the average price of eggs in the main production areas was 3.5 yuan per catty, and in the main sales areas was 3.54 yuan per catty [8][17] (3) Basis Situation - Last week, due to the concentrated release of pre - Spring Festival stocking demand, the shipping speed in production areas accelerated, inventory decreased, and the spot premium significantly expanded. As the market was worried about post - holiday demand decline, the futures price increase was restricted. As of last Friday, the main contract JD2603 closed at 3072 yuan per 500 kilograms, with a basis of 428 yuan per 500 kilograms [20] 2. Fundamental Analysis (1) Supply Side a. Inventory of Laying Hens - In December, the national inventory of laying hens was about 1.295 billion. Since August last year, the inventory has been decreasing monthly but remains at a relatively high level in recent years [29] b. Old Hen Slaughter Volume - Last week, the slaughter volume of old hens decreased slightly. The total slaughter volume of old hens in the sample market was 658,500, a month - on - month decrease of 0.53%. The average slaughter age was 487 days, the same as the previous week [33] c. Shipping Volume in Production Areas - As the Spring Festival approached, the market's bullish expectation strengthened, downstream dealers and terminal channels were more active in stocking, and the shipping of eggs in production areas accelerated. Last week, the total shipping volume of the sample market in the main production areas was 7,600.70 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.46% and a year - on - year increase of 26.91% [35] (2) Demand Side a. Sales Volume in Sales Areas - Recently, the downstream stocking atmosphere has been strong, demand has been improving, and sales in sales areas have increased month - on - month. Last week, the sales volume of eggs in representative markets in sales areas was 7,792.88 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.35% and a year - on - year increase of 37.75% [39] b. Old Hen Slaughter Volume - Last week, the slaughter volume of old hens decreased month - on - month. The total slaughter volume of sample slaughter enterprises was 2.3249 million, a decrease of 81,000 from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.35% [42] (3) Inventory Situation - Supported by the consumption peak season, market circulation accelerated. As of January 16, the national production - link inventory was 0.26 days, and the circulation - link inventory was 0.44 days [45] (4) Egg - Laying Hen Breeding Cost and Profit - Last week, the cost per catty of eggs was 3.54 yuan per catty, a month - on - month increase of 0.02 yuan per catty or 0.57%. The profit was - 0.18 yuan per catty, a month - on - month increase of 0.24 yuan per catty or 57.14%. The cost of egg - laying hen breeding was 133.57 yuan per hen, a month - on - month increase of 0.47 yuan per hen or 0.35%. The breeding profit was 4.70 yuan per hen, a month - on - month increase of 9.54 yuan per hen [53] (5) Related Product Situation a. White - Feathered Broilers - Last week, the national price of white - feathered broilers decreased month - on - month. The average price in front of the shed was 3.75 yuan per catty, a month - on - month decrease of 0.27% and a year - on - year increase of 2.46% [57] b. 817 Small White Chickens - Last week, the price of 817 small white chickens was stable. The national weekly average price was 3.92 yuan per catty, with no change month - on - month [59] 3. Market Outlook - Since January, the spot price of eggs has risen by over 15%, and the futures market has also strengthened. The concentrated release of pre - Spring Festival stocking demand and the marginal shrinkage of supply have supported the market. However, the current inventory of laying hens is still relatively high, and potential supply pressure and post - holiday demand decline expectations may limit price increases. In the long - term, the core driver lies in the pace of production capacity reduction. The inventory of laying hens is expected to turn from an increase to a decrease year - on - year in the second quarter of this year, but short - term price increases face multiple constraints [9][60] 4. Operation Strategy - Unilateral: Temporarily wait and see, and continuously monitor the pace of production capacity reduction; Arbitrage: None; Options: None [10][61]
期现同步走强，旺季支撑凸显
Hua Long Qi Huo·2026-01-19 02:38