纯碱周报：直面“供增需弱”现实-20260119

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the soda ash market operated under the pressure of "increasing supply and weak demand." The continuous accumulation of high inventory and the deteriorating industry profit jointly suppressed the price. Although the expectation of cost support is gradually strengthening, the market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern with limited upside space before the demand side shows substantial improvement [9][39] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Soda Ash Supply and Demand Situation (1) Production and Capacity Analysis - As of January 15, 2026, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 775,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 21,700 tons or 2.88%. Among them, the light soda ash production was 361,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 12,400 tons, and the heavy soda ash production was 413,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9,300 tons [10] - The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 86.82%, compared with 84.39% in the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 2.43%. Among them, the ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 89.95%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.46%; the co - production process capacity utilization rate was 78.88%, a week - on - week increase of 4.77%. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual capacity of one million tons or more was 89.47%, a week - on - week increase of 1.32% [12] (2) Soda Ash Inventory Analysis - As of January 15, 2026, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1,575,000 tons, an increase of 10,300 tons or 0.66% compared with Monday. Among them, the light soda ash inventory was 837,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7,000 tons, and the heavy soda ash inventory was 738,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 17,300 tons. Compared with last Thursday, it increased by 2,300 tons or 0.15%. Among them, the light soda ash inventory was 837,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 500 tons; the heavy soda ash inventory was 738,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,800 tons [15] - The inventory at the same time last year was 1,431,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14,390 tons or 10.06% [16] (3) Shipment Situation Analysis - As of January 15, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 773,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 31.20%; the overall shipment rate of soda ash was 99.70%, a week - on - week increase of 21.52 percentage points [18] (4) Profit Analysis - As of January 15, 2026, the theoretical profit (double - ton) of Chinese soda ash by the co - production method was - 44 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10%. During the week, the price of raw material rock salt fluctuated steadily, the price of steam coal continued to rise, and the cost side increased; the soda ash market fluctuated little, and the price was adjusted steadily, so the double - ton profit of the co - production method continued to be at a low level [21] - As of January 15, 2026, the theoretical profit of Chinese soda ash by the ammonia - soda process was - 96.30 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 66.46%. During the week, the price of raw material sea salt was stable, the price of anthracite coal increased slightly, and the cost side increased slightly; the new price of soda ash had light transactions, mainly at low prices, so the profit of the ammonia - soda process fluctuated downward [25] 2. Downstream Industry Situation (1) Floating Glass Industry - As of January 15, 2026, the daily output of national floating glass was 150,700 tons, an increase of 0.45% compared with the 8th. The weekly (January 9 - 15, 2026) output of national floating glass was 1,052,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.65% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.28% [27] - As of January 15, 2026, the total inventory of national floating glass sample enterprises was 53,013,000 heavy boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 2,505,000 heavy boxes or 4.51%, and a year - on - year increase of 20.89% [31] 3. Comprehensive Analysis - Last week, the soda ash futures price was under pressure and fluctuated as a whole, with the center of gravity moving down. The market continued to trade the core logic of "supply exceeding demand" [39] - From the weekly fundamentals, the market was dominated by negative factors. The pressure on the supply side remained unabated. With the resumption of some devices, the industry's operating rate and weekly output increased significantly month - on - month, and the overall supply was at a high level. The demand side was dull. Although the enterprise's shipment volume increased due to pre - holiday stocking, the downstream glass industry's procurement of raw materials was mainly for rigid demand, and there was resistance to high - price goods, so the demand failed to form an effective pull. In this context, the industry inventory continued to accumulate month - on - month, and the year - on - year increase was obvious, which confirmed the pattern of loose market supply. At the same time, the production profit further shrank, especially the ammonia - soda process had fallen into deep losses, indicating that the current price decline was approaching the cost support line [39] 4. Operation Suggestions - Unilateral: Be cautious and wait and see, or conduct short - term range operations - Arbitrage: None - Options: Consider selling a wide - straddle option combination to earn time value in the expected high - volatility shock [40]