玻璃：年底需求减弱震荡偏弱运行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the glass industry is to expect a weak and volatile trend [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the glass futures weakened, with speculative sentiment cooling down. Although the inventory pressure of float glass factories has eased, the inventory in the middle - stream has reached a high level. The daily melting volume remained unchanged at 149,000 tons. The national factory inventory continued to decline due to the release of local speculative demand, and the inventory was further transferred to the middle and lower reaches. Before the Spring Festival, downstream enterprises will take holidays, and the decline of visible inventory is expected to slow down, with overall production and sales gradually declining. Macro - policy expectations have cooled down, and the market lacks substantial upward momentum. Technically, the short - side still has the upper hand, and the price is at a critical position in the adjustment stage. It is expected that the glass price will continue to operate in a weak and volatile manner, with the upper resistance level at 1130 - 1140 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Investment Strategy - The main logic is that the glass futures weakened last week. With the cooling of speculative sentiment, although the inventory pressure of float glass factories has eased, the middle - stream inventory has reached a high level. The daily melting volume remained stable, and the national factory inventory decreased due to speculative demand. Before the Spring Festival, downstream enterprises will rest, the decline of visible inventory will slow down, and production and sales will decline. Macro - policy expectations have cooled, and there is no substantial upward momentum in the market. Technically, the short - side dominates, and the price is in a critical adjustment position. It is expected that the glass price will be weak and volatile, with the upper resistance at 1130 - 1140. There is an opportunity to go long on glass and short on soda ash [3]. - The operation strategy is to expect a weak and volatile trend [3][4]. 3.2 Market Review: Spot Price Decline - As of January 16, the market price of 5mm float glass was 1,020 yuan/ton in North China (unchanged), 1,060 yuan/ton in Central China (+90), and 1,190 yuan/ton in East China (+10). Last Friday, the glass 05 contract closed at 1,103 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan from the previous week [10][11]. 3.3 Market Review: Narrowing of Basis - As of January 16, the futures price of soda ash was 1,192 yuan/ton, and the glass futures price was 1,103 yuan/ton, with a spread of 89 yuan/ton (+5). Last Friday, the basis of the glass 05 contract was - 43 yuan/ton (+41), and the 05 - 09 spread was - 106 yuan/ton (-12) [12][17]. 3.4 Profit: Continuous Loss - For the natural gas - making process, the cost was 1,568 yuan/ton (-1), and the gross profit was - 378 yuan/ton (+11). For the coal - gas - making process, the cost was 1,169 yuan/ton (-1), and the gross profit was - 149 yuan/ton (+1). For the petroleum - coke - making process, the cost was 1,109 yuan/ton (-1), and the gross profit was - 49 yuan/ton (+1) [21]. 3.5 Supply: No Change - Last Friday, the daily melting volume of glass was 149,535 tons/day (unchanged), with 212 production lines in operation [23]. 3.6 Inventory: Continued Inventory Reduction - As of January 16, the inventory of 80 glass sample production factories nationwide was 5,301.3 million weight boxes (-250.5). Among them, the inventory in North China was 837.1 million weight boxes (-95.9), in Central China was 588 million weight boxes (-68.5), in East China was 1,118.8 million weight boxes (-23.7), in South China was 658.8 million weight boxes (+26), in Southwest China was 1,097 million weight boxes (-49.8), the inventory in Shahe factories was 160 million weight boxes (-56), and the inventory in Hubei factories was 386 million weight boxes (-73) [28]. 3.7 Deep - processing: Decrease in Order Days - On January 15, the comprehensive production - sales rate of float glass was 103% (-42%). On January 16, the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 44.1% (unchanged). In mid - January, the order days of glass deep - processing were 9.3 days (+0.7) [30]. 3.8 Demand: Decline in Year - end Automobile Production and Sales - In December, China's automobile production was 3.296 million vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 236,000 vehicles and a year - on - year decrease of 70,000 vehicles. Sales were 3.272 million vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 157,000 vehicles and a year - on - year decrease of 217,000 vehicles. In December, the retail volume of new - energy passenger vehicles in China was 1.337 million vehicles, with a penetration rate of 59.1% [38]. 3.9 Demand: Year - on - Year Decline in Real Estate Data - In November, China's real estate completion area was 45.9293 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 25%; the new construction area was 43.9531 million square meters (-28%); the construction area was 31.2717 million square meters (-42%); and the commercial housing sales area was 67.1974 million square meters (-18%). From January 4 to January 11, the total transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 1.33 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 52% and a year - on - year decrease of 40%. In November, real estate development investment was 502.82 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 31% [43]. 3.10 Cost Side - Soda Ash: Weak Performance in the Futures Market - As of last weekend, the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash was 1,260 yuan/ton in North China (unchanged), 1,235 yuan/ton in East China (unchanged), 1,250 yuan/ton in Central China (unchanged), and 1,425 yuan/ton in South China (unchanged). Last Friday, the soda ash 2605 contract closed at 1,192 yuan/ton (-36). The basis of soda ash 05 contract in Central China was 58 yuan/ton (+36) [45][47]. 3.11 Cost Side - Soda Ash: Deterioration of Profit - As of last Friday, the profit of soda ash was - 44 yuan/ton (-4). The cost of the ammonia - soda process for soda ash production was 1,330 yuan/ton (+17), and the gross profit was - 96 yuan/ton (-38); the cost of the combined - soda process was 1,734 yuan/ton (+7), and the gross profit was - 44 yuan/ton (-4) [52][53]. 3.12 Cost Side - Soda Ash: Increase in Production - Last week, the domestic soda ash production was 775,300 tons (a month - on - month increase of 21,700 tons), including 413,800 tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month increase of 9,300 tons) and 361,500 tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month increase of 12,400 tons). The loss was 117,600 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 20,600 tons). At the end of last week, the exchange soda ash warehouse receipts were 3,221 (a month - on - month decrease of 1,699). As of January 16, the national in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.575 million tons (a month - on - month increase of 2,300 tons) [59][63]. 3.13 Cost Side - Soda Ash: Average Apparent Demand - Last week, the apparent consumption of heavy soda ash was 412,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 67,600 tons; the apparent consumption of light soda ash was 361,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 116,200 tons. The production - sales rate of soda ash last week was 99.7%, a week - on - week increase of 21.52%. In December, the soda ash inventory of sample float glass factories was 27.2 days [68].