市场多空交织，盘面区间震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The natural rubber market is a mix of bullish and bearish factors, and the market is expected to remain range - bound in the short term. The report suggests a wait - and - see approach for unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options trading [8][90][91] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Analysis Futures Price - Last week, the price of the main contract RU2605 of natural rubber futures ranged from 15,780 to 16,480 yuan/ton, showing a weak and oscillating trend with a slight decline. As of the close on January 16, 2026, it closed at 15,835 yuan/ton, down 195 points or 1.22% for the week [14] Spot Price - As of January 16, 2026, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 15,700 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the spot price of Thai three - smoked sheets (RSS3) was 18,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 16,100 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from last week. The arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,160 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [18][22] Basis and Spread - Using the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main natural rubber contract as the futures reference price, the basis between the two narrowed slightly compared to last week. As of January 16, 2026, the basis was maintained at - 135 yuan/ton, narrowing by 195 yuan/ton compared to last week [26] - As of January 16, the domestic price of natural rubber decreased slightly compared to last week, while the foreign price increased slightly [30] Important Market Information - The US Department of Justice launched a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Powell regarding the renovation of the Fed's headquarters. There were different responses from various parties, and Trump said he would announce the next Fed chairman in the coming weeks [31] - Trump threatened to impose a 25% tariff on countries doing business with Iran, and Iran said it was ready for all possibilities [31] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped to 198,000, significantly lower than the expected 215,000, and the four - week moving average reached a two - year low [32] - The World Bank raised its global economic growth forecast for 2026 to 2.6%, and gave different growth forecasts for the US, the Eurozone, and Japan [32] - Trump expressed his hope for the Fed to cut interest rates, and mentioned plans for people's livelihood burden reduction, government shutdown, and housing policy [32] - The US budget deficit in December 2025 was 145 billion US dollars, a record high for that month [32] - The US CPI in December 2025 increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.6%, both remaining the same as the previous value. The market expected the Fed to keep rates unchanged in January 2026 with a probability of 95% [33] - The St. Louis Fed President said there was little reason to further ease monetary policy in the short term [33] - The US PPI and core PPI in November 2024 increased by 3% year - on - year, higher than expected [34] - China will firmly safeguard its legitimate rights and interests in response to Trump's tariff threat and the G7's decision to reduce rare earth imports from China [34] - In 2025, China's second - hand car market transaction volume exceeded 20 million vehicles for the first time, with new energy second - hand car transactions accounting for 7.9% [34] - In 2025, China's automobile production and sales both exceeded 34 million vehicles, reaching a new high. The production and sales of new energy vehicles both exceeded 16 million vehicles, accounting for more than 50% of domestic new car sales. It is expected that in 2026, China's total automobile sales will reach 34.75 million vehicles, with new energy vehicle sales increasing by 15.2% [34] - The 2026 work meeting of the inter - ministerial joint conference on the development of energy - saving and new energy vehicle industries emphasized enhancing the independent and controllable ability of the industrial chain and supply chain, and promoting the large - scale application of new energy heavy trucks [35] - China's automobile export enterprise structure was significantly optimized in 2025, and it is expected to continue to grow in the future, but it also faces challenges [35] - In December 2025, China's automobile production and sales decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. For the whole year of 2025, production and sales reached a new high, and new energy vehicles became the dominant force in the market. Automobile exports exceeded 7 million vehicles, with new energy vehicle exports doubling [36] - In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 13%. The total sales volume in 2025 reached 1.137 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [37] Supply - side Situation - As of November 30, 2025, the production in Thailand's main producing area decreased slightly compared to the previous month, while that in Indonesia decreased slightly, and that in Malaysia, India, Vietnam, and China increased slightly. The total production of major natural rubber - producing countries in November 2025 was 1.0515 million tons, a decrease of 19,500 tons or 1.82% from the previous month [41] - As of November 30, 2025, China's monthly synthetic rubber production was 779,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1% [44] - As of November 30, 2025, China's cumulative synthetic rubber production was 8.169 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% [47] - As of November 30, 2025, China's import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 10,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.6% [52] Demand - side Situation - As of January 15, 2026, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 73.44%, up 7.55% from last week; the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 62.93%, up 4.91% from last week [56] - As of December 31, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 3.296 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 2.09% and a month - on - month decrease of 6.67% [60] - As of December 31, 2025, China's monthly automobile sales were 3.272 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 6.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 4.57% [63] - As of December 31, 2025, China's monthly heavy - truck sales were 102,701 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 21.98% and a month - on - month decrease of 9.31% [68] - As of November 30, 2025, China's monthly production of tire casings was 101.828 million pieces, a year - on - year decrease of 2.6% [71] - As of November 30, 2025, China's export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 51.73 million pieces, a month - on - month decrease of 8.11% [76] - In December 2025, Japan's automobile sales were 335,459, Germany's passenger - car sales were 246,400, and Germany's commercial - vehicle sales were 28,706. In November 2025, South Korea's domestic automobile sales were 116,906, the US sedan sales were 201,624, the US light - truck sales were 1,071,766, and the US light - vehicle sales were 1,273,390 [79] Inventory - side Situation - As of January 16, 2026, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 108,390 tons, an increase of 3,900 tons from last week [86] - As of January 11, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.256 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 24,000 tons or 1.9%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 835,000 tons, an increase of 2.5%; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 421,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.8% [86] - As of January 11, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 568,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19,800 tons or 3.62%. The bonded - area inventory was 93,500 tons, an increase of 6.14%; the general - trade inventory was 474,700 tons, an increase of 3.13% [86] Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Domestic production areas have fully stopped tapping, which supports rubber prices. Main producing areas such as Thailand and Vietnam are gradually entering the low - production period, but southern Thailand is still in the peak - production period in the short term. The impact of recent weather has weakened, and there is still some pressure on the supply side. In November 2025, China's natural rubber imports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [87] - Demand: Last week, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises recovered, and the operating rates of tire enterprises increased significantly month - on - month. Downstream enterprises maintained rigid - demand procurement, and the market trading atmosphere was average with light actual transactions. In December 2025, China's automobile production and sales decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, but the cumulative sales in 2025 increased year - on - year. The heavy - truck sales in December were better than expected. As the weather gets colder, the demand for all - steel tires is expected to weaken. China's tire exports increased in November 2025, and the domestic macro - economic outlook remains positive [88] - Inventory: Last week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to rise slightly, and China's natural rubber social inventory and the total inventory in Qingdao continued to rise, with the inventory - accumulation speed slightly decreasing [88] 后市展望 (Outlook) - The main contract of domestic natural rubber futures showed a weak and oscillating trend with a slight decline last week. In the future, macro - economically, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was significantly lower than expected last week, and the Fed is likely not to cut interest rates in January, leading to a cooling of macro - sentiment. Commodities showed differentiation, and the chemical - product index first rose and then fell. Domestically, macro - easing policies continue to be introduced, and the domestic macro - economic outlook remains positive. Fundamentally, the supply side still has some pressure, the terminal consumption performs well, and the inventory - accumulation speed of social inventory and the total inventory in Qingdao has slightly decreased. Overall, the natural rubber market is a mix of bullish and bearish factors, and the market is expected to remain range - bound in the short term. Key factors to watch include macro - sentiment, geopolitical factors, weather and raw - material output in rubber - producing areas, inventory - accumulation, Sino - US trade relations, and terminal - demand changes [89][90] Viewpoint and Operation Strategy - This week's view: It is expected that the main contract of natural rubber futures will remain range - bound in the short term. - Operation strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options trading [91][92]