氧化铝在产产能有所减少，沪铝或高位震荡运行

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Report's Core View - Aluminum prices are expected to mainly show a high - level oscillatory trend, with limited arbitrage opportunities, and it is recommended to mainly observe option contracts [6][33] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - Last week, the main contract AL2603 of Shanghai Aluminum futures showed an oscillatory market, with prices ranging from around 23,790 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 25,075 yuan/ton [8] 2. Macroeconomic Aspects - In December 2025, the national ex - factory prices of industrial producers decreased by 1.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month; they increased by 0.2% month - on - month, with the increase expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month. The purchase prices of industrial producers decreased by 2.1% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous month; they increased by 0.4% month - on - month, with the increase expanding by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month. In 2025, the ex - factory prices of industrial producers decreased by 2.6%, and the purchase prices of industrial producers decreased by 3.0%. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January was 2.8%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged was 97.2%. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point interest rate cut was 26.8%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged was 72.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point interest rate cut was 0.7% [5][12][13][32] 3. Supply and Demand Situation - As of December 2025, the domestic alumina in - production capacity was 95.7 million tons, the total capacity was 114.62 million tons, and the operating rate was 83.49%, maintaining a relatively high level compared to the past five years. As of December 2025, the in - production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.594 million tons, the total capacity was 45.362 million tons, and the operating rate was 98.31%, maintaining a relatively high level compared to the past five years from a seasonal perspective [18] 4. Inventory Situation - As of January 16, 2026, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 185,879 tons, an increase of 42,051 tons from the previous week. As of January 16, 2026, the LME aluminum inventory was 488,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 8.45%. As of January 15, 2026, the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 698,000 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons from the previous day [24] 5. Macroeconomic and Fundamental Analysis - The situation of global alumina supply surplus continues. The in - production capacity and operating rate of alumina both decreased, while the operating rate of electrolytic aluminum enterprises remained high. The Shanghai Aluminum inventory increased significantly, and the inventory level was at a low level in recent years. The LME aluminum inventory decreased slightly [32] 6. Future Outlook - Aluminum prices are expected to mainly show a high - level oscillatory trend, with limited arbitrage opportunities, and it is recommended to mainly observe option contracts [6][33]