华龙期货铁矿周报-20260119

Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment Rating: ★★ [6] Report's Core View - Last week, the Iron Ore 2605 contract rose 3.17%. In the commodity futures market, most major commodity futures prices increased, and the financial market sentiment was relatively positive. With a lack of fundamental drivers, the macro - level provided the main support for the market. Iron ore is expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillatory trend in the near future [4][34] - For single - sided trading, it is advisable to go long on dips and pay attention to the support at 800 yuan/ton. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [5][6][35][36] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Disk Analysis - This section includes analysis of futures prices, spot prices (such as the PB powder 61.5% spot price at Tianjin Port), and futures position net - position analysis [7][8][12] 2. Important Market Information - In 2025, the cumulative increase in the total social financing scale was 35.6 trillion yuan, 3.34 trillion yuan more than the previous year. At the end of December 2025, the broad - money (M2) balance was 340.29 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%; the RMB loan balance was 271.91 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.4% [15] - The World Bank raised its 2026 global economic growth forecast to 2.6%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the previous forecast. The US GDP growth rate is expected to reach 2.2% in 2026, while the economic growth rates of the Eurozone and Japan are expected to slow down to 0.9% and 0.8% respectively [15] 3. Supply - Side Situation - As of December 2025, the import volume of iron ore and concentrates was 11,965 million tons, an increase of 911 million tons from the previous month; the import average price was 101.16 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.33 US dollars/ton from the previous month [20] - As of December 2025, Australia's iron ore shipment volume was 7,139.3 million tons, an increase of 954.4 million tons from the previous month; Brazil's iron ore shipment volume was 2,763.5 million tons, a decrease of 332.8 million tons from the first half of the month [24] 4. Demand - Side Situation - This section involves data on the daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills, and the Shanghai terminal wire rod and screw steel procurement volume [25][28][30] 5. Fundamental Analysis - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in the country was 16,555.10 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 279.84 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.1989 million tons, a decrease of 338,000 tons; the number of ships at the port was 117, an increase of 1 [33] - The blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.84%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.47% and a year - on - year increase of 1.66%; the blast - furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.48%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.56% and a year - on - year increase of 1.20%; the steel - mill profitability rate was 39.83%, a month - on - month increase of 2.17% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.39%; the daily average molten iron output was 2.2801 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 149,000 tons [33] - In early January, key steel enterprises produced 19.97 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.997 million tons, a daily output increase of 21.6% month - on - month. It is estimated that the national daily output of crude steel was 2.48 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 22.8%; the daily output of pig iron was 2.15 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.8%; and the daily output of steel products was 3.87 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2% [33] 6. Future Outlook - Iron ore is expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillatory trend in the near future [34] 7. Operation Strategy - For single - sided trading, go long on dips and pay attention to the support at around 800 yuan/ton. For arbitrage and options, wait and see [5][6][35][36]