情绪转弱致锂价回调

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The weakening sentiment has led to a correction in lithium prices. In January, the market may shift from inventory accumulation to depletion, but the large decline in futures prices and the strengthening of basis and monthly spreads may cause traders to sell off their inventories, intensifying the downward momentum of lithium prices. The recent regulatory and media efforts to cool the market atmosphere have weakened the sentiment in the non - ferrous market, triggering corrections in most varieties. [1][6] - For trading strategies, it is recommended to wait for volatility to converge in unilateral trading, temporarily observe in arbitrage trading, and sell out - of - the - money call options in options trading. [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Demand Analysis 3.1.1 New Energy Vehicles - The off - season for new energy vehicles has arrived but the situation is better than expected. From January 1 - 11, vehicle sales data was dismal. The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers predicts that in 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles will be 16.626 million and 16.49 million respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 29% and 28.2%, and a penetration rate of 47.9%. It is estimated that in 2026, the sales of new energy vehicles will reach 19 million, a year - on - year increase of 15.2%. The decline in export tax rebates since April 1 may boost the pre - export rush in the first quarter, smoothing the decline in power battery production scheduling caused by poor vehicle sales. [11] - The electrification processes in Europe and the United States are diverging. Globally, from January - November 2025, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles increased by 20.1% year - on - year to 18.39 million. In Europe, from January - November 2025, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles increased by 29.2% year - on - year to 3.434 million. In the United States, from January - November 2025, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles increased by 0.7% year - on - year to 1.39 million. China's cumulative exports of new energy vehicles from January - December 2025 reached 2.583 million, a year - on - year increase of 103%. [16] 3.1.2 Energy Storage Market - The energy storage market has booming orders, but production capacity bottlenecks limit the growth of production scheduling. In 2025, China's cumulative production of energy storage cells was 52.94 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 54%. The inventory of energy storage cells is at a three - year low, the delivery cycle has been extended, and the production scheduling of energy storage cells in January increased by 1% month - on - month. [20] 3.1.3 January Downstream Production Scheduling - In January, the downstream production scheduling weakened but may be revised upwards. In December 2023, the production of batteries, cells, and positive electrodes showed different trends in month - on - month changes. In January 2024, the production scheduling of batteries, cells, positive electrodes, and electrolytes all decreased month - on - month. Affected by the weakening of power demand, the off - season continued, but it may be revised upwards due to the pre - export rush, and it is expected that the month - on - month decline will continue in February. [30] 3.2 Supply Analysis 3.2.1 Lithium Carbonate Production - In January, due to the maintenance of some smelters, the production scheduling decreased by 1.2% month - on - month. From January - December, the domestic production of lithium carbonate was 970,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 44%. The production scheduling in January was 98,000 tons. The prices of lithium mines followed the prices of lithium salts, exceeding the production cost. This week, the production of lithium carbonate from mica decreased, but the production from other raw materials made up for it, and the month - on - month production was basically stable. [35] 3.2.2 China's Monthly Lithium Carbonate Production by Raw Material - Relevant data shows the production trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as salt lakes, lithium spodumene, lithium mica, and recycling over time. [37] 3.2.3 January Supply of Lithium Carbonate - In January, the supply of lithium carbonate decreased marginally. From January - November 2025, China's import volume of lithium carbonate was 219,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. In November, Chile's total export of lithium carbonate decreased. It is expected that the import volume of lithium concentrates and lithium carbonate in China will decline month - on - month in January. [42] 3.3 Supply - Demand Balance and Inventory 3.3.1 Lithium Carbonate Supply - Demand Balance Estimation - Relevant data shows the supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate in China over time. [44] 3.3.2 Lithium Carbonate Returns to De - stocking - This week, the social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 263 tons, returning to the de - stocking stage. Smelters accumulated inventory, while traders and downstream enterprises reduced inventory. [45]