油脂周报：政策端扰动较大，油脂整体震荡运行-20260119

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Recently, policy - side disturbances in the oil and fat market are significant, and the overall oils and fats are oscillating. The total inventory of the three major domestic oils and fats is gradually decreasing slightly, but the overall inventory is still sufficient. Malaysian palm oil has entered the production - reduction period, with slow de - stocking and high inventory likely to persist. Indonesia will continue the B40 policy this year, and the potential bullishness from B50 has temporarily disappeared. Domestic soybean oil is gradually de - stocking, and the inventory is not expected to be tight. Rapeseed supply in China is expected to increase, which may lead to a weakening oscillation of rapeseed oil. However, considering the time for rapeseed shipments to arrive after March and the expected release of the US biodiesel plan in March, there is some bullish driving force for soybean oil and rapeseed oil, and the decline space of near - month rapeseed oil contracts may be limited [5][31]. Summary by Directory International Market Malaysian Palm Oil - MPOB data shows that the ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil in December unexpectedly increased to 3.05 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.6%. Production decreased by 5% to 1.83 million tons, and exports increased by 8.5% to 1.32 million tons. The market believes the negative impact has been digested, causing the price to rise. SPPOMA predicts that the production of Malaysian palm oil in the first 10 days of January decreased by 20.49% compared with the same period last month, and ITS predicts that exports increased by 29%. It is expected that the inventory in January will be around 2.92 million tons. Additionally, Indonesia has cancelled the plan to increase the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio to 50% this year, maintaining it at 40%, and will raise the CPO export levy from 10% to 12.5% from March 1 [8]. Indian Oils and Fats - SEA data indicates that India imported 1.38 million tons of edible oil in December, a year - on - year increase of 200,000 tons. Among them, soybean oil and sunflower oil imports were relatively large at 510,000 and 350,000 tons respectively, an increase of 140,000 and 200,000 tons, while palm oil imports were only 510,000 tons, a decrease of 120,000 tons. Due to less palm oil imports, the inventory decreased to 460,000 tons, slightly lower than the 5 - year average. There are rumors of palm oil purchases this week [14]. US Bio - fuel - The Trump administration plans to finalize the 2026 bio - fuel blending ratio quota by early March 2026. The US EPA is considering setting the target at 5.2 - 5.6 billion gallons in 2026, slightly lower than the previous proposal of 5.61 billion gallons. It is expected that the US EPA will abandon the plan to penalize imported renewable fuels and raw materials, which eases the concerns of oil refiners [18]. Domestic Market Palm Oil - As of January 9, 2026 (Week 2), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 736,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,200 tons, an increase of 0.30%. The import profit inversion has narrowed, currently around - 100. There are rumors of 4 - 6 near - month shipments this week. In the short term, the palm oil market lacks obvious drivers, and the high - inventory situation is expected to continue with slow de - stocking. It is recommended that short - position holders consider partial profit - taking [21]. Soybean Oil - As of January 2, 2026, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.081 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8,000 tons, a decrease of 0.73%. The inventory has reached an inflection point and is gradually de - stocking, but it will not be overly tight. Considering potential customs policy changes and the de - stocking expectation, the short - term performance is relatively good, but there are no prominent contradictions currently [26]. Rapeseed Oil - As of January 2, 2026, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 273,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18,000 tons. The inventory is in a neutral position historically and is continuously decreasing. The spot market trading is light. It is expected that China will reduce the comprehensive tariff rate of Canadian rapeseed to about 15% by March, and the trade between China and Canada may resume. Although rapeseed supply is expected to increase, the decline space of near - month rapeseed oil contracts is limited due to the time for rapeseed shipments to arrive after March and the expected release of the US biodiesel plan in March [29]. Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral strategy: In the short term, the overall oils and fats market may maintain an oscillating trend, with limited upside and downside. It is recommended to conduct high - selling and low - buying range operations. - Arbitrage strategy: Wait and see. - Option strategy: Wait and see [33].