Report Title - Copper Weekly Report: Short - term Fluctuations Intensify, Long - term Bullish Trend Remains Unchanged [1] Report Author - Researcher: Wang Wei. Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03143400. Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0022141 [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report Core View - Short - term bullish sentiment has weakened, and the market fluctuates greatly under the influence of funds and sentiment. However, the main bullish logic has not changed, and the long - term upward trend continues. It is recommended to control positions and protect long positions [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy Macro Aspect - US CPI was lower than market expectations, which initially increased market expectations for Fed rate cuts. But Powell's criminal investigation raised concerns about the Fed's independence and hawkish stance. The short - term is hawkish, but the Fed's loose monetary policy will not change [7] Copper Ore - The negotiation of the Mantoverde copper mine incident in Chile was fruitless, and the strike will continue. The 2025 output of Mantoverde is 74,000 tons. Chinese smelters finalized the 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee benchmark with Antofagasta at $0/ton and 0 cents/pound. The long - term negotiation is difficult and the progress is slow [7] Scrap Copper - Enterprises are being inspected for the compliance of "reverse invoicing". After New Year's Day, many enterprises need to red - offset some non - compliant amounts. Since Wednesday, new raw material orders of enterprises are mainly invoiced [7] Refined Copper - In December 2025, SMM's Chinese electrolytic copper output was 1.1781 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 75,000 tons (6.8%) and a year - on - year increase of 7.54%. The cumulative output from January to December was 13.4326 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.372 million tons (11.38%). SMM expects the domestic electrolytic copper output in January 2026 to be 1.1636 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14,500 tons (1.23%) and a year - on - year increase of 156,300 tons (14.78%) [7] Consumption - After the price slightly回调 in the second half of the week, the market's rigid demand procurement increased. Although Nvidia adjusted the data on copper demand in data centers, it has little impact on AI copper consumption. The "14th Five - Year Plan" period's 4 - trillion - yuan fixed - asset investment of the State Grid Corporation provides demand support [7] Spread and Ratio - Before the Spring Festival, the domestic spread will remain in the C structure. After domestic export goods flow into the LME market, the LME's short - term squeeze risk decreases. It is expected that the ratio will deteriorate later, and the domestic export window will remain open [7] 3.2 Domestic and Foreign Price Trends - The report shows the price trends of Shanghai copper futures and LME copper futures in 2023 - 2026, and the price changes under different events such as processing fee decline, tariff investigations, and production plan adjustments [9] 3.3 Copper Fundamental Analysis and Weekly Data Tracking Copper Spot Market - As of January 15, 2026, SMM's national mainstream copper inventory increased by 47,100 tons (17.2%) to 320,900 tons compared with last Thursday, and the total inventory increased by 212,800 tons year - on - year. The domestic bonded - area copper inventory increased by 1,200 tons to 80,000 tons. The LME inventory increased to 144,000 tons [7][16] Copper Concentrate Market - On January 16, 2026, the SMM imported copper concentrate index (weekly) was reported at - $46.53/ton, a decrease of $1.12/ton from the previous period. The port inventory increased to 690,400 physical tons, an increase of 50,000 physical tons from the previous period. In December 2025, China imported 2.704 million tons of copper ore and concentrates, and from January to December, the cumulative import was 30.31 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.9% [32] Scrap Copper Market - As of this Friday, the scrap - refined copper price difference is 3,391 yuan/ton. This week, the operating rate of recycled copper rods was 13.52%, an increase of 0.53 percentage points from last week and a decrease of 9.01 percentage points year - on - year. From January to September 2025, the domestic supply of scrap copper increased by 902,600 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.18%. In November 2025, China imported 208,100 tons of scrap copper, a year - on - year increase of 19.99%, and from January to November, the cumulative import was 2.1036 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.63% [44] Blister Copper Market - On January 16, 2026, the average domestic southern blister copper processing fee was 2,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. In October 2025, the blister copper output was 1.0367 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.62%. From January to October, the cumulative output was 10.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.02%. In November 2025, China imported 58,300 tons of anode copper, a month - on - month increase of 5.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.47%. From January to November, the cumulative import of anode copper was 692,300 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 15.13% [50] Domestic Copper Supply - In December 2025, SMM's Chinese electrolytic copper output was 1.1781 million tons. SMM expects the domestic electrolytic copper output in January 2026 to be 1.1636 million tons. From January to November 2025, China's refined copper imports totaled 3.0948 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 8.12%, and exports totaled 692,600 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 57.68% [56] Copper Products Operating Rate - On January 15, 2026, the copper rod operating rate increased by 9.65 percentage points to 57.47%, far lower than the 70.46% of the same period last year. The operating rate of recycled copper rods declined again after a rebound. The weekly operating rate of wire and cable decreased by 0.59 percentage points to 55.99%, a decrease of 4.95 percentage points compared with the same period last year [62] Downstream Operating Rate - In December 2025, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises was 61.33%. It is expected to be 65.01% in January 2026. The comprehensive operating rate of the enameled wire industry in December was 66.28%, and it is expected to be 66.84% in January. The operating rate of copper cable enterprises in December was 68.89%, and it is expected to rise to 70.77% in January [76] Air - conditioner Consumption - In November 2025, China's household air - conditioner production was 1.0577 million units, a year - on - year decline of 36.7%. The production schedule of household air - conditioners in January 2026 is 1.851 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11% [81] Automobile Consumption - In December 2025, automobile production and sales were 3.296 million and 3.272 million units respectively. In 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 16.626 million and 16.49 million units respectively. It is predicted that the total automobile sales in 2026 will be 34.75 million units, with new energy vehicle sales expected to reach 19 million units [83] Grid Investment - From January to November 2025, China's grid investment completion was 560.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. The "14th Five - Year Plan" period's 4 - trillion - yuan fixed - asset investment of the State Grid Corporation provides demand support [86] Real Estate Market - From January to November 2025, the national commercial housing sales area was 787 million square meters, a year - on - year decline of 7.8%. The national housing completion area was 394 million square meters, a year - on - year decline of 18% [93] Overseas Data - In November 2025, the global new energy vehicle sales were 2 million units, a year - on - year increase of 8.53%. From January to November 2025, the new energy vehicle sales in the US were 1.4681 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.71% [108] Photovoltaic and Wind Power - From January to November 2025, China's new photovoltaic installed capacity was 274.98GW, a year - on - year increase of 68.59GW (33.24%). The new wind power installed capacity from January to November 2025 was 82.5GW, a year - on - year increase of 30.75GW (59.42%) [102] 3.4 Industry News and Macro Data - The US December non - farm payrolls increased by 50,000, less than expected, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.4%. The Trump administration ordered Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200 billion in mortgage - backed securities. The Mantoverde copper mine strike will continue. The US federal prosecutor launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell. The Congolese state - owned mining company will directly purchase 100,000 tons of copper from the TFM copper - cobalt mine in 2026. Codelco expects its 2026 copper output to reach 1.344 million tons [109]
铜周报：短线波动加剧，长期多头趋势不变-20260119
Yin He Qi Huo·2026-01-19 02:36