高盛-可持续研究-2026年展望-AI创新与能源会议要点

Investment Rating - The report emphasizes a focus on reliability and essential services as core themes for investment, indicating a positive outlook for sectors that address these needs [2][3]. Core Insights - The report identifies a shift in sustainable investment towards risk mitigation and long-term returns, highlighting the importance of reliability, affordability, and security in the current investment landscape [2][3]. - There is a significant increase in electricity demand, reaching levels not seen since the 1990s, driven by aging infrastructure and the need for reliable energy sources [1][3]. - The report anticipates a substantial growth in data center electricity demand, projected to increase by approximately 175% by 2030 compared to 2023, necessitating significant infrastructure investments [6][9]. - The energy sector is expected to see a diversification in electricity procurement strategies, focusing on natural gas, nuclear energy, and renewable sources to ensure reliability and cost-effectiveness [9][12]. Summary by Sections Sustainable Development and Investment - Sustainable investment is increasingly centered on risk mitigation and long-term profitability, with a focus on identifying risk drivers and companies that can benefit from risk mitigation investments [2][3]. - The narrowing global trust circle has heightened the priority of reliability, affordability, and security, leading to a renewed focus on traditional sustainable development themes beyond just climate and decarbonization [2][3]. Energy Policy and Market Trends - The U.S. Energy Secretary emphasized the need to utilize domestic resources to maintain pricing advantages in natural gas and electricity, while cautioning against over-reliance on intermittent power sources [4][5]. - Despite challenges, renewable energy capacity is expected to grow healthily, supported by government incentives, although concerns remain regarding its reliability in achieving decarbonization goals [5][12]. Artificial Intelligence and Infrastructure - The development of AI is still in a phase of evaluation, with significant infrastructure investments required to support its growth and address increasing data processing demands [6][7]. - The report highlights that efficiency improvements in AI technologies have not negatively impacted overall R&D budgets, indicating continued investment in this area [7][11]. Supply Chain and Resource Management - The concentration of critical mineral supply chains poses significant risks, with China dominating the refining capacity for many strategic materials, prompting a push for diversification in supply sources [13][14]. - The report notes that the need for supply chain diversification is driving investments in local production capabilities, particularly in the U.S. and Europe [13][14]. Labor Market and Demographic Changes - The aging population and advancements in AI are expected to create labor market mismatches, with potential solutions including increased female workforce participation and skills retraining initiatives [14][15]. - Investment opportunities are identified in sectors addressing the needs of an aging population, including healthcare and education [14][15].