高盛-2026年支付行业展望-未来一年十大投资者主题

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the payment industry, with a focus on potential recovery in 2026 due to fiscal stimulus and a lower base effect from 2025 [1][3]. Core Insights - Consumer spending in the U.S. is expected to stabilize in 2026, driven by fiscal stimulus and positive responses from low-income groups, although high borrowing costs remain a challenge [1][5]. - The payment industry is experiencing valuation compression despite revenue and margin growth, attributed to concerns over increased competition and long-term sustainability [1][4]. - The introduction of the Credit Card Competition Act is anticipated to reshape the credit card market, potentially lowering merchant transaction fees and impacting the payment ecosystem significantly [1][9][8]. Summary by Sections Consumer Spending and Fiscal Stimulus - U.S. consumer spending is projected to grow steadily in 2026, with fiscal stimulus contributing approximately 20 basis points to this growth [3][5]. - Low-income consumers are expected to benefit from tax refunds, which may improve their financial situation in the first half of 2026 [5][6]. Payment Industry Valuation and Performance - The payment industry has faced a comprehensive valuation compression, with median stock prices declining by double digits despite revenue growth [4]. - Major banks have benefited from regulatory relaxations, while companies like Visa and Mastercard have not seen similar advantages, indicating a shift in market dynamics [4]. Innovations in Payment Ecosystem - Generative commerce, utilizing AI for shopping experiences, is emerging but remains in its infancy, facing significant fraud and security risks [7]. - Visa and Mastercard have introduced universal token solutions, but substantial growth in this area is not expected until 2026 [7]. Legislative Developments - The Credit Card Competition Act aims to enhance competition in the credit card sector by requiring banks to connect their cards to multiple networks, potentially lowering transaction fees for merchants [9][10]. - The act's passage is likely to have profound implications for the payment ecosystem, although the actual reduction in fees remains uncertain [9][10]. Market Outlook for Credit and Financing - The non-bank consumer finance sector is expected to stabilize in terms of funding availability, with companies like Klarna showing promise due to their low capital dependency [12][13]. - The report highlights a positive outlook for Klarna, which has recently secured significant funding and is positioned well in the market [13][16]. Preferred Stocks - The report identifies several preferred stocks, including Chime, Klarna, and Block, with Chime focusing on direct deposit services for low-income consumers and Klarna expanding its presence in the profitable U.S. market [16][17]. - Block is noted for its ongoing transformation and growth in transaction volumes, particularly through its Cash App platform [17].