高盛-跨行业工具箱-2025年第四季度核心洞察与2026年度首选股

Investment Rating - The report gives a premium rating for high-quality stocks expected in 2026, particularly those that faced profit margin pressure due to tariff pass-through effects in 2025, with anticipated growth of 9.5%, significantly above the industry average [7][8]. Core Insights - Approximately 65% of indicators at the company level in the European capital goods sector show a quarter-on-quarter acceleration trend, primarily driven by the electrical equipment and related markets, as well as certain commodity-related sectors [1][2]. - The capital expenditure tracker indicates a strong outlook for the next three years (2025-2028), with a Kiger tracking data of about 7.8, approaching levels seen during expansion peaks in 2011 and 2004-2007, driven mainly by large-scale enterprises [1][4]. - There is increasing investor concern regarding the concentration of business in the electrical equipment sector, with current sector P/E ratios at a nearly 50% premium to the Stoxx 600 index, far exceeding long-term averages [1][5]. - Key focus is on high-quality stocks with expected earnings guidance for 2026, such as cable manufacturers involved in the grid transmission and distribution sector, which have backlogs extending to the end of this year and are expected to achieve double-digit growth [1][6]. Summary by Sections Capital Expenditure Outlook - The capital expenditure tracker shows a robust outlook for both short-term and medium-term, with demand growth primarily driven by large-scale enterprises, which now account for one-third of the tracking data [4]. - The overall Kiger data has increased by approximately 1.7 percentage points globally, indicating a strong demand environment [4]. Industry Performance and Key Companies - Companies like Prisma, Rexel, Vol, Vopak, and Brabant Zeven are highlighted as examples of strong performance in the electrical equipment and maritime sectors [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of proving the sustainability of profit growth and the potential for upward revisions in earnings expectations for the electrical equipment sector [5]. Specific Company Insights - Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) is viewed positively, with 15% of its revenue coming from the data center vertical, and an expected organic growth rate of 17% CAGR for its photonics business by 2030 [3][10]. - Trellisburg, valued at approximately €7 billion, focuses on engineering rubber products and is expected to benefit from cyclical recovery in key end markets such as automotive and construction [12]. - Rational Group, the largest commercial kitchen oven manufacturer, is expected to return to high single-digit or at least double-digit growth by the end of this decade, driven by market expansion in China and new product lines in the U.S. [13].