高盛-周末宏观观点

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The U.S. government may issue executive orders related to housing, credit card, and financial product affordability, but the actual impact may be limited due to constraints on the government's ability to drive significant change through existing executive powers [1][2] - The Supreme Court's decision on IEP tariffs remains uncertain, with the potential for tariffs to be retained if the deliberation period extends [1][3][4] - Major U.S. banks reported steady consumer spending growth and improved loan quality, although concerns exist regarding the potential impact of credit card pricing caps [1][8][9] - The U.S. dollar is expected to trend downward in 2026, with emerging market currencies facing slightly unfavorable prospects, leading to an upgrade in ratings for cyclical G10 currencies like the Australian and New Zealand dollars [1][10] - The Japanese yen, with an implied fiscal risk premium, remains a strong hedging tool and has significant potential for appreciation [1][12] Summary by Sections Government Policy Tools - The government has three main avenues to address growth and affordability issues: legislation, executive measures, and informal pressure on industries [2] Supreme Court Tariff Decisions - The Supreme Court's indecision on IEP tariffs could lead to a prolonged uncertainty, with the possibility of tariffs being reconstructed through specific legal provisions if they are invalidated [3][4] Banking Sector Trends - Recent financial reports from major U.S. banks indicate positive trends, including a steady increase in consumer spending and improved credit quality, with expectations of a decrease in loan write-offs [1][8] - Concerns about the impact of proposed credit card interest rate caps on banks' profitability are prevalent, with potential legislative actions being monitored [9] Currency Market Outlook - The report anticipates a downward trend for the U.S. dollar in 2026, influenced by a soft labor market and ongoing monetary policy [1][10] - The yen is highlighted as a valuable hedging instrument due to its significant potential for appreciation amidst fiscal risk [1][12] European Credit Market - The European credit market is expected to see stable or slightly increased issuance of high-yield bonds and leveraged loans in 2026, driven by mergers and acquisitions and AI-related capital expenditures [16][17] - Credit spreads are currently at historical lows, with expectations of a gradual widening due to increased supply from anticipated M&A activity [17][18]