上行驱动有限，关注冬储进度：中辉期货钢材周报-20260119

1. Report Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - This week, the black sector showed a volatile trend, with the main contract of rebar rising 0.6% and hot-rolled coil rising 0.6%, while iron ore fell 0.3%, coke fell 1.8%, and coking coal fell 2.1%. The raw material end was weak, and the overall market was dull. Steel had limited contradictions in the off-season, and macro policies did not provide strong driving forces. The supply of raw materials was relatively loose, iron ore inventory reached the highest level in history, and Mongolian coal customs clearance continued to increase. This week, the molten iron output decreased month-on-month, reducing the support for raw materials. External commodity fluctuations increased, and after precious metals and non-ferrous metals soared, they fluctuated sharply. The Wenhua Commodity Index reached the previous high of 170 and then declined [2]. - In the context of the lack of positive drivers for black commodities, the weakening support of raw materials, and the commodity index reaching a key resistance level, it is expected that rebar will face significant pressure near the previous high. Currently, the market has entered the winter storage stage. Due to the need for rebar basis repair and the market's expectation of raw material replenishment by steel mills, it may support the futures market in the short term. Later, attention should be paid to the possibility of the market weakening after the positive factors weaken. One can choose the opportunity to conduct sell hedging operations or sell out-of-the-money call options to enhance returns [2]. - There are obvious differences in inventory and basis between hot-rolled coil and rebar. The spot price difference between hot-rolled coil and rebar has weakened, and there is still room for the futures price difference to shrink [3]. - The basis in East China has dropped from around 150 last week to around 130, and there is still room for further decline. The spot performance may be weak [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Production - Monthly Data: In November 2025, the monthly output of pig iron was 6234000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.7%, and the cumulative output was 77405000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%. The monthly output of crude steel was 6987000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.9%, and the cumulative output was 89167000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.0%. The monthly output of steel was 11591000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6%, and the cumulative output was 133277000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 4%. The monthly import volume of steel was 52000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, and the cumulative import volume was 606000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 11.1%. The monthly export volume of steel was 1130000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, and the cumulative export volume was 11902000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.5% [6]. - Weekly Data: As of January 16, 2026, the weekly output of rebar was 190300 tons, a decrease of 0.74 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 11%. The weekly consumption was 190340 tons, an increase of 15.38 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 8%. The inventory was 438070 tons, a decrease of 0.04 tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.84%. The weekly output of wire rod was 73490 tons, an increase of 0.58 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 7%. The weekly consumption was 72000 tons, an increase of 5.28 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 10%. The inventory was 91760 tons, an increase of 1.95 tons, a year-on-year increase of 11%. The weekly output of hot-rolled coil was 308360 tons, an increase of 2.85 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 6%. The weekly consumption was 314160 tons, an increase of 5.82 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 4%. The inventory was 362330 tons, a decrease of 5.8 tons, a year-on-year increase of 15%. The weekly output of cold-rolled coil was 88670 tons, a decrease of 0.17 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 2.7%. The weekly consumption was 91930 tons, an increase of 3.08 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 0.25%. The inventory was 158490 tons, a decrease of 3.26 tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.47%. The weekly output of medium and heavy plate was 158390 tons, a decrease of 1.9 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 0.78%. The weekly consumption was 158150 tons, a decrease of 0.26 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 0.17%. The inventory was 196360 tons, an increase of 0.24 tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.55%. The total weekly output of the five major steel products was 819210 tons, an increase of 0.62 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 6.16%. The total weekly consumption was 826000 tons, an increase of 29 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 4.58%. The total inventory was 1247000 tons, a decrease of 6.91 tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.29% [7]. Steel Production Profit - On January 15, 2026, in East China, the profit of rebar - blast furnace was 120, a decrease of 5; the profit of rebar - electric furnace - off-peak electricity was 33, an increase of 2; the profit of rebar - electric furnace - normal electricity was - 88, an increase of 2; the profit of hot-rolled coil - blast furnace was 19, an increase of 15. In North China, the profit of rebar - blast furnace was 5, a decrease of 7; the profit of rebar - electric furnace - off-peak electricity was 55, an increase of 1; the profit of rebar - electric furnace - normal electricity was - 29, no change; the profit of hot-rolled coil - blast furnace was - 93, an increase of 3. In Central China, the profit of rebar - blast furnace was 175, no change; the profit of rebar - electric furnace - off-peak electricity was 46, a decrease of 17; the profit of rebar - electric furnace - normal electricity was - 88, a decrease of 17; the profit of hot-rolled coil - blast furnace was 65, a decrease of 10 [22]. Steel Demand - Real Estate: In 2025, the cumulative year-on-year decrease in the commercial housing transaction area of 30 large and medium-sized cities was 10%, and the cumulative year-on-year decrease in the land transaction area of 100 cities was 19% [30]. - Cement and Concrete: The cement delivery volume was lower than the previous year for most of 2025, and it is still lower than the same period last year in 2026. The concrete delivery volume is the same as the same period last year [33]. - Steel Export: In December, the steel export volume was 1.13 million tons, close to the historical highest level. The export profit of hot-rolled coil has generally declined recently [39]. Steel Inventory - Rebar: The rebar basis decreased slightly this week, but the absolute level is still high. Currently, the production profit of rebar is generally better than that of hot-rolled coil. Later, the rebar output may be stronger than the seasonal performance, and the decline will weaken. The apparent demand increased month-on-month, but it may only be a short-term pulse phenomenon. According to past rules, the basis is expected to narrow. The rebar inventory stopped decreasing this week, and the inventory increase is earlier in the lunar calendar. After the production control in 2025 ended, the release of production capacity may lead to relatively better rebar supply, and the month spread is difficult to strengthen [52][62]. - Hot-rolled Coil: The hot-rolled coil basis fluctuates around - 30, with little change. Although it is currently at a low level, the relatively high inventory of hot-rolled coil still suppresses the basis and limits the upward space. The hot-rolled coil 5 - 10 month spread fluctuates around - 20. The overall high inventory of hot-rolled coil and the difficulty in de-stocking suppress the month spread [56][67]. Price Difference - Volume - Rebar Price Difference: There are obvious differences in inventory and basis between hot-rolled coil and rebar. The spot price difference between hot-rolled coil and rebar has weakened, and there is still room for the futures price difference to shrink [3]. - Basis: The basis in East China has dropped from around 150 last week to around 130, and there is still room for further decline. The spot performance may be weak [4].