综合晨报-20260119

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report 2. Core Views - The report analyzes various commodities and financial markets, including energy, metals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives. It assesses the impact of geopolitical events, supply - demand dynamics, and policy changes on prices and provides trading strategies for each sector [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - Crude Oil: Geopolitical risks in Iran are controllable, and the geopolitical risk premium has declined. In Q1 2026, global crude oil supply exceeds demand, and inventory pressure is significant, which suppresses oil prices [2] - Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Geopolitical risks continue to affect the fuel oil market. Geopolitical threats may tighten Asian supply, supporting high - sulfur cracking spreads in the short term, but the supply of high - sulfur heavy raw materials will gradually ease. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is increasing, and its weak pattern is expected to continue [22] - Asphalt: Asphalt follows crude oil price movements but with a relatively limited amplitude. The market is in an oscillating pattern, and attention should be paid to the arrival of Venezuelan crude oil [23] - Urea: The weekend urea spot market was stable. With the approaching spring demand and macro - positive factors, the market is expected to oscillate strongly [24] - Methanol: After the Iranian geopolitical situation cooled, the methanol market had a large - amplitude rise and then a fall. Overseas plant operation rates are low, and port inventories are decreasing. However, demand is weakening, and the short - term market is in a multi - empty game [25] Metals - Precious Metals: US economic data shows resilience, and the Fed's short - term interest rate cut is unlikely. Geopolitical tensions support a long - term bullish view on precious metals [3] - Base Metals: - Copper: The Shanghai copper market oscillated around 100,000. Attention should be paid to geopolitical situations, LME spot premiums, and domestic copper social inventories. The "15th Five - Year Plan" investment in the power grid has a 7% annual compound growth rate. Continue the strategy of selling call options at high levels [4] - Aluminum: The short - term funds' sentiment is volatile. Wait for the volatility to decline before participating. Aluminum smelters can sell and hedge at high prices in the current range [5] - Zinc: After the market digested the news, it will gradually return to fundamental trading. High prices have a negative impact on consumption, but the supply pressure is not large. The Shanghai zinc price may correct to 24,000 yuan/ton [8] - Lead: There are both maintenance and restart of lead smelters. The refined - scrap price difference is 200 yuan/ton. The Shanghai lead price has a large downward pressure at the 17,800 yuan/ton level, and attention should be paid to the 17,000 yuan/ton support [9] Agricultural Products - Grains and Oils: - Soybeans & Soybean Meal: The Brazilian soybean production is expected to increase by 2.5% in 2026. The market is mainly trading on the South American bumper harvest expectation. Attention should be paid to US soybean exports and South American weather [36] - Soybean Oil & Palm Oil: The US biomass fuel policy is expected to improve the marginal demand for US soybean oil. Palm oil has short - term high - inventory pressure. The overall view is for range - bound oscillations [37] - Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil: The China - Canada trade agreement may lead to a marginal relaxation of domestic rapeseed supply, putting short - term pressure on rapeseed prices [38] - Other Agricultural Products: - Corn: The Dalian corn futures oscillated. The national corn spot price was stable with a slight increase. The short - term trend is wide - range oscillation, and seasonal risks should be noted later [40] - Cotton: The US cotton signing data is good, but the domestic Zhengzhou cotton market is in adjustment. The downstream demand is average, and the short - term fundamental driving force is weakened [43] - Sugar: The international sugar market is affected by different production progress in India and Thailand. The domestic market's trading focus is on the production volume difference. The Zhengzhou sugar's rebound is expected to be limited [44] - Apple: The apple futures price rose and then fell. The market's trading focus is on demand. The high acquisition price and strong reluctance to sell may affect the inventory reduction speed [45] Financial Derivatives - Stock Index: The A - share market opened high and closed low. The stock index is expected to change from a one - way rapid rise to an oscillatingly strong trend. The upward slope will slow down. Attention should be paid to the transition of the upward driver and geopolitical disturbances [48] - Treasury Bonds: The treasury bond futures showed a differentiated performance, and the curve continued to steepen. The market is expected to oscillate narrowly. There may be an opportunity to flatten the curve when the 30 - 10y spread reaches 50bp [49] - Shipping Index: The near - month contracts of the container shipping index (European line) will oscillate in the short term, and the long - term contracts are under the pressure of the resumption of shipping. The contract rules will be adjusted [21]