短期预期反应充分，碳酸锂高位震荡：碳酸锂周报-20260119

Report Title - The title of the report is "Carbonate Lithium Weekly Report: Short - term expectations are fully reflected, and carbonate lithium fluctuates at a high level" [1] Report Information - The analyst is Zhang Qing, with a consulting account number Z0019679, from the Research Institute of Zhonghui Futures. The report date is January 16, 2026 [2] Market View Summary Macroeconomic Overview - In December, China's exports increased by 2.3% year - on - year (expected 3%), imports decreased by 3.1% year - on - year (expected 2.9%), and the trade surplus was $75.34 billion. The export growth rate slowed down, and the import decline widened. The 1 - year LPR was reported at 3.45%, and the 5 - year LPR was reported at 4.2%, remaining unchanged for the 9th consecutive month. The central bank announced a 0.25 - percentage - point cut in the interest rates of structural monetary policy tools such as re - loans for supporting agriculture and small businesses and rediscounts starting from January 19. M2 increased by 8.7% year - on - year in December. The increase in social financing scale was 2.45 trillion yuan, and the new RMB loans were 1.4 trillion yuan. In December, the US CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, the core CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and increased by 0.38% month - on - month. The Fed's interest rate cut was postponed. The Prime Minister of Canada visited China this week to promote China - Canada economic and trade cooperation in the fields of agriculture and energy [3]. Supply Side - This week, the production of carbonate lithium decreased slightly, but the weekly production remained above 24,000 tons, and the average industry operating rate was above 50% [3]. Demand Side - From January 1st to 11th, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in the Chinese market were 117,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 38% compared with the same period in January last year and a 67% decrease compared with the same period last month. The cumulative retail sales this year were 117,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 38%. The wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles by manufacturers was 167,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 30% compared with the same period in January last year and a 51% decrease compared with the same period last month. The cumulative wholesale volume this year was 167,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 30% [4]. Cost and Profit - This week, the prices of lithium ore increased. The price of African SC 5% lithium ore was $1,750 per ton, a week - on - week increase of $120 per ton; the CIF price of Australian 6% spodumene was $2,250 per ton, a week - on - week increase of $368 per ton; the market price of lithium mica was 6,050 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 450 yuan per ton. The profit of the carbonate lithium industry was 39,668 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 8,593 yuan [4]. Total Inventory - As of January 15th, the total inventory was 109,679 tons, a decrease of 263 tons from last week. The inventory of upstream smelters was 19,727 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,345 tons [4]. Market Outlook - The basis between futures and spot prices remained stable this week. The discount of battery - grade carbonate lithium was concentrated between 500 - 2,400 yuan per ton, and that of industrial - grade carbonate lithium was concentrated between 1,900 - 3,300 yuan per ton. The actual transaction discount of battery - grade carbonate lithium was between 2,000 - 3,000 yuan per ton. Upstream lithium salt producers were active in selling, and traders were active in purchasing. Downstream buyers were mostly on the sidelines due to cost pressure. The main contract of carbonate lithium fluctuated greatly this week. At the beginning of the week, it rose for two consecutive days due to the news of canceling the export tax rebate on lithium batteries. However, with the overall decline of the non - ferrous metal sector and the exchange's new position - limit measures leading to capital outflows, the price of carbonate lithium dropped significantly. The fundamental situation has not changed much. Upstream lithium salt producers are highly motivated to start production due to high prices, and the warehouse - receipt inventory in the futures market continues to rise. The change in the export tax - rebate policy has triggered an expectation of "rush to export", and the market remains optimistic about the demand in the first quarter. However, the new - energy vehicle market shows obvious off - season characteristics, and the high - frequency data in January has shown a significant decline. In 2026, new production capacities of material manufacturers will be put into operation on a large scale. There will be rigid - demand purchasing support after the lithium price drops. In the short term, the upward trend of the price will slow down under the influence of capital and market sentiment. Wait for the opportunity to go long after a sufficient correction [5]. Price Changes | Product | Price Index | Unit | Price as of January 16th | Price on January 9th | Increase/Decrease Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spodumene | 6%CIF | USD/ton | 2,250 | 1,948 | 15.50% [6] | | | African SC 5% | USD/ton | 1,750 | 1,630 | 7.36% [6] | | Lithium Mica | ≥2.5% | CNY/ton | 6,050 | 5,600 | 8.04% [6] | | Lithium Metal | ≥99% | CNY/ton | 875,000 | 725,000 | 20.69% [6] | | Carbonate Lithium | Battery - Grade | CNY/ton | 157,000 | 140,000 | 12.14% [6] | | | Industrial - Grade | CNY/ton | 155,000 | 138,000 | 12.32% [6] | | Lithium Hydroxide | Battery - Grade | CNY/ton | 150,000 | 135,000 | 11.11% [6] | | | Industrial - Grade | CNY/ton | 142,500 | 125,000 | 14.00% [6] | | Lithium Hexafluorophosphate | | CNY/ton | 153,000 | 156,000 | - 1.92% [6] | | Ternary Materials | 523 | CNY/ton | 177,400 | 166,400 | 6.61% [6] | | | 622 | CNY/ton | 175,650 | 159,650 | 10.02% [6] | | | 811 | CNY/ton | 193,800 | 181,800 | 6.60% [6] | | | 111 | CNY/ton | 168,250 | 157,250 | 7.00% [6] | | Ternary Precursors | 523 | CNY/ton | 103,725 | 101,255 | 2.44% [6] | | | 622 | CNY/ton | 96,350 | 93,120 | 3.47% [6] | | | 811 | CNY/ton | 116,750 | 113,465 | 2.90% [6] | | Lithium Iron Phosphate | Energy - Storage Type | CNY/ton | 54,100 | 49,700 | 8.85% [6] | | | Power Type | CNY/ton | 56,100 | 51,800 | 8.30% [6] | | Iron Phosphate | | CNY/ton | 11,210 | 11,020 | 1.72% [6] | | Lithium Cobalt Oxide | 4.35v | CNY/ton | 400,000 | 391,000 | 2.30% [6] | | Lithium Manganate | Capacity Type | CNY/ton | 56,500 | 53,000 | 6.60% [6] | | | Power Type | CNY/ton | 57,500 | 54,000 | 6.48% [6] | | Artificial Anode Materials | High - End | CNY/ton | 53,500 | 53,500 | 0.00% [6] | | | Mid - End | CNY/ton | 27,500 | 27,500 | 0.00% [6] | | | Low - End | CNY/ton | 20,000 | 20,000 | 0.00% [6] | | Natural Anode Materials | High - End | CNY/ton | 50,000 | 50,000 | 0.00% [6] | | | Mid - End | CNY/ton | 31,000 | 31,000 | 0.00% [6] | | | Low - End | CNY/ton | 21,250 | 21,250 | 0.00% [6] | | Electrolytes | Lithium Iron Phosphate | CNY/ton | 35,500 | 35,500 | 0.00% [6] | | | Ternary/Conventional Power Type | CNY/ton | 37,250 | 37,250 | 0.00% [6] | Market Review - As of January 16th, the LC2605 contract closed at 146,200 yuan per ton, a 1.9% increase from last week. The spot price of battery - grade carbonate lithium was 157,000 yuan per ton, a 12% increase from last week. The basis changed from discount to premium, and the open interest of the main contract was 420,000. This week, the main contract hit a new high. Affected by the news of canceling the export tax - rebate subsidy for lithium batteries over the weekend, the market was optimistic about the expectation of rush to export. With the pre - positioning of demand and the slow release of upstream production, the price soared to 174,000 yuan. However, the sales volume of the terminal new - energy vehicle market was average in January, and overseas production resumed. The price of carbonate lithium dropped significantly due to weakening expectations [7]. Production Situation Carbonate Lithium - As of January 16th, the production of carbonate lithium was 24,510 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 710 tons. The enterprise operating rate was 54.3%, a week - on - week increase of 2.59%. A few lithium salt producers carried out maintenance plans this week, leading to a slight decline in production. However, the industry operating rate remained above 50%, and the ramping - up of new production capacities continued to contribute to the increase. South American lithium salt producers will resume partial production at the end of January, and the supply is expected to be loose [9]. Lithium Hydroxide - As of January 16th, the production of lithium hydroxide was 6,715 tons, a week - on - week increase of 325 tons. The enterprise operating rate was 36.99%, a week - on - week increase of 1.79%. This week, the raw material prices fluctuated greatly, and downstream buyers generally adopted a wait - and - see attitude. However, the profit inversion of upstream enterprises restricted their enthusiasm for starting production, and some production lines were still under maintenance. The market remained in a tight - balance state [11]. Lithium Iron Phosphate - As of January 16th, the production of lithium iron phosphate was 97,203 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,174 tons. The enterprise operating rate was 85.62%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.91%. The continuous decline in the production of lithium iron phosphate this week was mainly due to the maintenance of individual large factories and production line technological transformation, combined with the obvious cost pressure on small and medium - sized manufacturers, which actively reduced the device load [14]. Ternary Materials - The raw material prices of ternary materials were high, and enterprises slightly reduced production [16]. Other Cathode Materials - The downstream purchasing willingness of other cathode materials was low, and the industry produced according to sales [23]. Inventory Situation Carbonate Lithium Industry - As of January 15th, the total inventory of the carbonate lithium industry was 109,679 tons, a decrease of 263 tons from last week. The warehouse - receipt inventory was 27,458 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,098 tons. The total inventory of carbonate lithium decreased again. The inventory of downstream material manufacturers increased, which indirectly confirmed that downstream buyers still maintained rigid - demand purchasing in the traditional off - season. With the rapid price increase, the warehouse - receipt inventory continued to increase [30]. Downstream Lithium Iron Phosphate - As of January 16th, the total inventory of the lithium iron phosphate industry was 30,786 tons, a decrease of 2,313 tons from last week. This week, the finished - product inventory of lithium iron phosphate continued to decline. Downstream cell manufacturers maintained a stable purchasing rhythm. However, due to the high current cost price, downstream buyers only maintained the necessary safety inventory. The operating load of the lithium iron phosphate industry decreased, mainly consuming the existing inventory [33]. Other Downstream Industries - In the off - season of demand, the shipment of ternary materials was not smooth, and the inventory increased slightly. The inventory situations of manganese acid lithium, cobalt acid lithium, and ternary precursors also had corresponding changes [35][37][39]. Cost and Profit Situation Cost Side - As of January 16th, the price of African SC 5% lithium ore was $1,750 per ton, a week - on - week increase of $120 per ton; the CIF price of Australian 6% spodumene was $2,250 per ton, a week - on - week increase of $368 per ton; the market price of lithium mica was 6,050 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 450 yuan per ton. Although the import of lithium ore was abundant, the production capacity of lithium salt producers was full, and the high completion rate of Spring Festival inventory replenishment supported the raw - material prices at a high level [44]. Carbonate Lithium - As of January 16th, the production cost of carbonate lithium was 115,364 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 11,560 yuan. The profit of the carbonate lithium industry was 39,668 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 8,593 yuan. The average production cost of the carbonate lithium industry increased week - on - week due to the significant increase in lithium - ore prices. The profit margins of integrated and salt - lake enterprises expanded significantly, but the profits of processing enterprises relying on external raw - material procurement were meager, and the internal differentiation was relatively serious [46]. Lithium Hydroxide - As of January 16th, the production cost of lithium hydroxide was 108,189 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 13,132 yuan. The profit of the lithium hydroxide industry was 40,022 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 11,047 yuan. This week, the prices of raw materials and carbonate lithium increased significantly, further increasing the cost - side pressure of lithium hydroxide production. The price of lithium hydroxide was affected by carbonate lithium, with scarce low - price goods, and the industry profit further expanded [48]. Downstream Lithium Iron Phosphate - As of January 16th, the production cost of lithium iron phosphate was 55,041 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 4,609 yuan. The loss of lithium iron phosphate was