长江期货粕类油脂周报-20260119

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - In the soybean meal market, before the tightening of supply and demand is realized, the price faces upward pressure. The market shows a pattern of first tightening and then loosening, with near - term contracts showing relative strength and far - term contracts being relatively weak [7][77]. - In the oils and fats market, biodiesel and trade policies cause disruptions, leading to a differentiated trend. Short - term price fluctuations are significant, and the overall market is expected to open lower and then oscillate at a low level [78]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Soybean Meal Period and Spot Market - As of January 16, the spot price of soybean meal in East China decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 3070 yuan/ton, and the M2605 contract closed at 2727 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan/ton. The basis price increased by 30 yuan/ton. US soybeans showed a weak oscillation, and domestic soybean meal prices generally declined [7][9]. Supply Side - South American weather remains favorable, with a high soybean excellent rate and strong expectations of a bumper harvest. From January to March, domestic soybean arrivals will decrease, and the supply - demand situation will gradually tighten. From April to July, arrivals will remain high, with a large supply pressure [7]. Demand Side - Current soybean meal demand remains high, supported by high inventories of pigs and poultry and the good cost - effectiveness of soybean meal. In the second week of 2026, the national soybean inventory of oil mills was 713.12 million tons, slightly increasing by 2.87 million tons from the previous week, and the soybean meal inventory decreased significantly [7]. Cost Side - The cost of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 950 cents per bushel, and the cost of domestic soybean meal from May to August is estimated to be 2580 yuan/ton. The cost of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 1000 cents per bushel, and the import cost is estimated to be 3000 yuan/ton [7]. Market Outlook - Near - term contracts are supported by the expectation of inventory reduction and cost, with limited upward price space. Far - term contracts are weak due to the expectation of a South American bumper harvest. The pattern of strong near - term and weak far - term contracts will continue [7]. Oils and Fats Period and Spot Market - As of the week of January 16, the palm oil 05 contract decreased by 8 yuan/ton, the soybean oil 05 contract increased by 22 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil 05 contract increased by 21 yuan/ton. Palm oil was weak due to Indonesia's cancellation of B50, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil were relatively strong [78]. Palm Oil - From January 1 to 15, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased, and exports increased, but the rate of decline and increase narrowed. Indonesia will not implement the B50 biodiesel plan in 2026. The domestic palm oil inventory slightly increased, and the 04 contract oscillated in the range of 3950 - 4200 [78]. Soybean Oil - USDA's January supply - demand report and December quarterly inventory report were bearish. Although China continues to purchase US soybeans, the market is worried about future purchases. The US biodiesel quota plan is expected to be positive for soybean oil demand. Domestic soybean and soybean oil inventories are high, but there are concerns about a decrease in arrivals from January to March, and the inventory decreased to 102.51 million tons [78]. Rapeseed Oil - China plans to reduce the import tariff of Canadian rapeseed to 15% before March, which is expected to lead to an increase in imports. Currently, the domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil inventories are low, and the inventory decreased to 25 million tons. The short - term decline of near - term contracts is limited [78]. Market Outlook - In the short term, the oils and fats market is expected to open lower and then oscillate at a low level. Rapeseed oil is expected to be relatively weak, while soybean oil and palm oil are expected to be relatively strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the narrowing spread strategy between rapeseed and palm oil and rapeseed and soybean oil for the 05 contracts [78].