区间运行，下沿支撑渐显：中辉期货双焦周报-20260119

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, black - series commodities showed small fluctuations, with prices generally maintaining a range - bound operation. After the holiday, coal mines resumed production, increasing supply. Spot trading improved, and downstream coking enterprises were more active in restocking, leading to a reduction in mine inventories. [4] - The supply - demand contradiction of coking coal and coke is relatively limited. The performance of downstream finished steel basically conforms to the off - season characteristics, suppressing the raw material end. This week, the main contracts reduced positions by about 22,000 lots, and market divergence decreased. Short - term prices may maintain a range - bound operation. As the current price is close to the lower end of the range and there is still some restocking demand before the Spring Festival, attention can be paid to periodic low - price opportunities. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - Supply Side: After the holiday, coal mines resumed production, and the supply of coking coal increased. The daily average output of raw coal from 523 mines this week was 197.79 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.92 million tons; the daily average output of clean coal was 76.85 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.42 million tons. The daily average output of sample coal washing plants was 27.35 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.23 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 36.79%, a week - on - week increase of 1.37%. [20][23] - Demand Side: Downstream coking enterprises' restocking enthusiasm increased, and the online auction success rate remained high. However, steel mills' restocking enthusiasm was not high, mainly consuming previous inventories. [4] - Import: After the holiday, the port clearance volume returned to the previous high level. However, the available resources of Mongolian 5 coking coal were scarce, and the quotation generally rose. The transaction price of Mongolian 5 raw coal has risen to about 1,080 yuan/ton, and the cost of Mongolian coal and Shanxi mainstream warehouse receipts is between 1,100 - 1,250 yuan/ton. [7] - Price: The price of raw coal rose, deepening the losses of coking enterprises. Some coking enterprises initiated the first price increase, and there may be a second price increase expected. [7] 3.2 Market Data - Coking Coal Warehouse Receipt Cost: Different varieties of coking coal have different warehouse receipt costs in different regions. For example, the warehouse receipt cost of Mongolian 5 coking coal in Tangshan is 1,078 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia is 1,229 yuan/ton. [11] - Coking Coal Basis: The basis of different contracts has different week - on - week changes and basis rates. For example, the basis of the January contract is 221, with a week - on - week increase of 114 and a basis rate of 17.90%. [13] - Coking Coal Month - to - Month Spread: No specific data is provided in the report. - Black Commodity Price Ratio: No specific data is provided in the report. - Coking Coal Auction Data: This week, the coking coal listing volume was 146.94 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 54.26 million tons, the transaction rate was 85.85%, a week - on - week increase of 16.76%, and the non - transaction rate was 14.15%, a week - on - week decrease of 16.76%. [30] - Coking Coal Total Inventory: No specific data is provided in the report. - Coking Coal Inventory Distribution: No specific data is provided in the report. - Coking Profit: The coking profit in different regions decreased week - on - week. For example, the national coking profit was - 65 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton. [39] - Coke Basis: The basis of different contracts has different week - on - week changes and basis rates. For example, the basis of the January contract is 178, with a week - on - week increase of 52 and a basis rate of 12.05%. [42] - Coke Month - to - Month Spread: No specific data is provided in the report. - Coke Supply: No specific data is provided in the report. - Coke Demand: No specific data is provided in the report. - Coke Total Inventory: The total coke inventory was 920.21 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.31 million tons. [54] - Coke Inventory Distribution: The inventory of steel mills was 650.33 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.6 million tons; the inventory of independent coking enterprises was 81.81 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.26 million tons; the port inventory was 188.07 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.97 million tons. [54] - Registered Warehouse Receipts: No specific data is provided in the report. - Futures Positions: No specific data is provided in the report.