美暂缓对关键矿产进口加征关税，沪铜走弱：铜周报20260118-20260119

Report Summary 1. Core View - The U.S. has postponed imposing tariffs on critical mineral imports, and Shanghai copper prices have weakened [1] 2. Key Points by Category Price Data - After the contract change of Shanghai copper, the copper spot has turned to a discount, and the spot market trading is sluggish [9] - This week, the LME copper 0 - 3M premium continued to strengthen on a week - on - week basis [13] Fundamental Data - The average weekly price of the copper concentrate TC index decreased by $1.12/ton to -$46.53/ton on a week - on - week basis and remained low [15] - According to Steel Union, the port inventory of copper concentrate this week was 54.7 million tons, an increase of 11.9 million tons on a week - on - week basis and lower on a year - on - year basis [18] - The spread between refined and scrap copper has widened [21] - China's electrolytic copper production in January is expected to decrease on a month - on - month basis but increase on a year - on - year basis [23] - From January to December, the cumulative imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 5.321 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.4% [26] - This week, the spot and bonded area inventories of electrolytic copper increased on a week - on - week basis [27] - LME copper inventories have increased, and COMEX copper inventories continue to accumulate [29] - Driven by post - holiday复产, the operating rate of refined copper rods rebounded this week [30] - From January 1st to 11th, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the national market decreased by 38% on a year - on - year basis [31] - The overall production schedule of photovoltaic modules in January is expected to decline; the export tax refund for photovoltaic value - added tax will be cancelled starting from April [32] - The production schedules of household air conditioners in January and February are differentiated, with the cumulative production basically flat [34] Macroeconomic Data - The central bank has lowered the policy tool interest rate by 25 basis points and stated that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year [36] - The core CPI growth rate in the U.S. in December was lower than expected, with a year - on - year increase of 2.6%, and the CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, in line with expectations [38] - The front - runner for the Federal Reserve Chairman position has changed, and Trump has said that he hopes Hassett will continue to serve as a White House advisor [41]