华宝期货铝锭晨报-20260119

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The成材 is expected to move in a range-bound consolidation [3] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to remain high in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment and mine - end news [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Content For成材 - Yunnan - Guizhou region's short - process construction steel producers will stop production for maintenance from mid - to late January and resume around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting 741,000 tons of construction steel output [2] - In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5th, and most others will stop around mid - January, with daily output affected by about 16,200 tons [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The成材 continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, so the price center continues to move down [3] For Aluminum - Last week, the price of Shanghai Aluminum pulled back from a high. The market believes that the Fed will not cut interest rates in January, while in China, there is still strong macro - positive sentiment [2] - The supply of domestic bauxite was stable last week. The supply shortage in the north is expected to gradually ease, and the inventory of alumina plants increased by 703,600 tons. The price of domestic ore is expected to decline [3] - The operating rates of domestic aluminum downstream processing sectors were divided last week, with a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points to 60.2%. High aluminum prices are suppressing downstream consumption, and the operating rate is expected to be weak in the short term [3] - On January 19, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas was 749,000 tons, an increase of 19,000 tons from last Monday [3]