生猪、玉米周报：生猪价格重心上移，玉米警惕高位风险-20260119

Report Summary Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The price center of live pigs has shifted upward, and there is a need to be vigilant about high - level risks in corn [3]. Content Summary Live Pigs - Last week, the live pig futures fluctuated strongly. The LH2603 contract closed at 11,980 yuan/ton, up 1.83% from the previous week's settlement price. The national ex - ternary live pig market price was 12.69 yuan/kg, up 0.24 yuan/ton week - on - week. As of January 16, the self - breeding and self - raising live pig farming profit was 7.39 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 18.93 yuan/head; the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was 48.35 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 50.66 yuan/head; the pig - grain ratio was 5.51, up 0.05 week - on - week [5]. - The national live pig spot price first stabilized and then rose last week. Currently, the supply has not fully increased, the number of large pigs sold by retail farmers is small, and second - round fattening replenishment provides support. The overall market sentiment is stable, driving the live pig price to rise steadily. The slaughter end has a low acceptance of high - priced pig sources. In the short term, affected by snowfall, the market is in a stalemate between supply and demand. After the 20th, the supply may gradually increase, limiting the upward space of live pig prices [5]. Corn - Last week, the corn futures rose first and then fell. The C2603 contract closed at 2,281 yuan/ton, up 0.8% from the previous week's settlement price. The national average corn spot price was 2,363.92 yuan/ton, up 12.06 yuan/ton week - on - week. Port prices also showed an upward trend [6]. - From January 8 to January 14, 2026, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises in the country consumed 1.3559 million tons of corn, a decrease of 25,900 tons from the previous week. The processing volume of corn starch enterprises was 614,200 tons, a decrease of 13,600 tons from the previous week; the weekly national corn starch output was 315,400 tons, a decrease of 9,400 tons from the previous week; the weekly operating rate was 57.65%. The DDGS industry's operating rate dropped to 58.02%, a decrease of 4.02% from the previous week, and the production volume decreased by 6.48% [7]. - As of January 14, 2026, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 3.59 million tons, an increase of 1.41%. As of January 16, the total corn inventory of the four northern ports was about 1.32 million tons, and the corn inventory in Guangdong ports was 760,000 tons [7][8]. - The national corn spot market fluctuated and rose last week. The grassroots grain sales progress in the Northeast region was faster than the same period last year, and the import corn auction was continuously put into the market. The market had a strong bullish sentiment, while the purchase price in the North China region remained in a narrow - range shock. The current raw material corn price is at a high level, and the operating rate of the industry has declined. Although the market has not seen a large - scale increase in supply, and downstream grain - using enterprises are stocking up, as the pre - holiday grain sales window shortens and the supply of policy - based grain sources increases, the upward space of corn prices may be limited. There is an enhanced pressure on the upper side of the futures price, and there is a need to be vigilant about high - level adjustment risks [8].