煤炭行业周报：2025年用电量超10万亿kwh，需求开启上行周期

Investment Rating - The report rates the coal industry as "Overweight" [4]. Core Viewpoints - The coal sector has confirmed its cyclical bottom in Q2 2025, with a reversal in supply-demand dynamics and sufficient release of downward risks [2]. - The report anticipates that demand for coal and downstream thermal power will enter a new upward cycle starting in 2026, driven by a projected increase in electricity consumption [3][4]. - The report highlights the importance of coal's role in the global energy landscape, particularly in light of electricity shortages in the U.S. and the need for reliable power supply amidst rising electricity demand due to AI and extreme weather [4]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report continues to recommend core dividend stocks such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy, along with Yanzhou Coal Mining and Jinneng Holding [4]. Electricity Consumption Forecast - By 2025, total electricity consumption in China is expected to exceed 10 trillion kilowatt-hours, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0% [4]. - The first industry is projected to consume 149.4 billion kilowatt-hours, up 9.9% year-on-year; the second industry is expected to consume 66,366 billion kilowatt-hours, up 3.7%; the third industry is forecasted to consume 19,942 billion kilowatt-hours, up 8.2% [4]. Coal Price Trends - As of January 16, 2026, the price of Q5500 coal at Huanghua Port is 707 RMB/ton, up 1 RMB/ton (0.1%) from the previous week [7]. - The price of Q5000 coal at Huanghua Port is 623 RMB/ton, up 2 RMB/ton (0.3%) from the previous week [10]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic coal supply is stable, while imports are expected to continue declining, leading to a stable overall supply decrease [4]. - The report notes that the demand side shows significant improvement, with expectations for a rebound in Q3 profitability [4]. Market Tracking - The report tracks coal price increases across various ports, with notable price rises in both domestic and international markets [6][7][10]. - The report also highlights inventory increases at major ports, indicating a tightening supply situation [22][28].