Report Title - Copper Weekly Report: US Copper Tariffs May Be Delayed, Bullish Sentiment Cools [1] Report Date - January 19, 2026 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trump's suspension of tariffs on key minerals, combined with the strengthening of the US dollar and the suppression of downstream market demand by high - priced copper, brings adjustment pressure to copper prices. Although the supply - shortage trend of copper concentrate is difficult to reverse, and there is still a logic for copper price increase due to global energy transformation and incremental demand, the short - term support has significantly decreased, and copper prices have entered a high - level shock pattern [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Main Viewpoints and Strategies 1.1 Last Week's Market Review - Last week, Shanghai copper fluctuated at a high level. As of January 16, it closed at 100,770 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.8%. The shortage at the mine end was not substantially repaired, and the spot processing fee of copper concentrate remained at a historical low. The strike at Chile's Mantoverde copper mine continued. Downstream demand was limited, and domestic inventory continued to accumulate. Trump's statement on not considering tariff hikes narrowed the LME - COMEX arbitrage space. With the strengthening of the US dollar index and the increase in profit - taking sentiment, copper prices fluctuated at a high level [5]. 1.2 Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis - Supply: The shortage of copper concentrate continued. The strike at Mantoverde copper mine in Chile continued. As of January 16, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 547,000 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 21.76% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.32%. The spot smelting fee of copper concentrate was - 46.4 US dollars/ton. In December, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.178 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 6.8% and a year - on - year increase of 7.54%. The total electrolytic copper output in January is expected to decline month - on - month [8]. - Demand: The downstream was under pressure at high copper prices, but the copper foil industry's operating rate increased. As of January 15, the weekly operating rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises was 57.47%. In December, the operating rates of copper strips, copper bars, copper tubes, and copper foils were 68.21%, 52.74%, 68.84%, and 88.2% respectively [8]. - Inventory: Domestic copper inventory continued to accumulate, and COMEX copper inventory continued to increase. As of January 16, the copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 21.35 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 18.26%. As of January 15, the total copper inventory in the mainstream regions of China increased by 17.2% week - on - week, and the total inventory increased by 2.128 million tons year - on - year. As of January 16, the LME copper inventory was 143,600 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 3.31%, and the COMEX copper inventory was 542,900 short tons, with a week - on - week increase of 4.81% [8]. 1.3 Strategy Suggestions - Trump's suspension of tariff hikes on key minerals, the strengthening of the US dollar, and the suppression of downstream demand by high - priced copper bring adjustment pressure to copper prices. Although the supply - shortage trend at the mine end is difficult to reverse, and the logic for copper price increase still exists, the short - term support has decreased, and copper prices have entered a high - level shock pattern [9]. 2. Macroeconomic and Industry News 2.1 Macroeconomic Data Overview - China's exports denominated in US dollars in December increased by 6.6% year - on - year, and imports increased by 5.7% year - on - year. In 2025, China's total goods trade volume exceeded 45 trillion yuan, and the trade surplus was expected to reach 1.2 trillion US dollars. - In 2025, China's social financing scale increased by more than 35 trillion yuan, and RMB loans increased by 16.27 trillion yuan. - The core CPI increase in the US in December was 2.6%, remaining at the lowest level in four years. - US retail sales in November unexpectedly strengthened, with a month - on - month increase of 0.6%. - The PPI in the US in November rebounded to 3% year - on - year, and the core PPI increased by 0% month - on - month [13]. 2.2 Industry News Overview - In November 2025, copper production in Chile decreased by 3% to 130,900 tons. - Japan's Pan Pacific Copper raised the 2026 copper premium in Japan to a record 330 US dollars/ton. - Chile's copper exports in December were 146,401 tons, and the exports of copper ore and concentrates were 1,170,302 tons. - In 2025, China's imports of copper ore and concentrates were 3.031 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%. - In 2025, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 532,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.4%. - Rio Tinto's Nuton project reached a copper supply agreement with Amazon's cloud computing service department [14]. 3. Spot - Futures Market and Positioning 3.1 Premium and Discount - As the delivery approached, the discount converged. The high price and limited supply of high - quality copper drove up the premium. The spot premium of Shanghai copper was stable during the week, but the discount widened at the end of the week. The LME copper 0 - 3 premium widened, and the New York - London copper spread weakened. Trump's statement on not considering tariff hikes on key minerals narrowed the LME - COMEX arbitrage space [17]. 3.2 Domestic and Foreign Positions - As of January 16, the trading position of Shanghai copper futures was 225,933 lots, a week - on - week increase of 9.42%, and the average daily trading volume was 286,732.4 lots, a week - on - week increase of 3.96%. As of January 9, the net long position of LME copper investment companies and credit institutions was 9,769.24 lots, a week - on - week increase of 217.29%. As of January 13, the net long position of COMEX copper asset management institutions was 63,391 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 7.11% [20]. 4. Fundamental Data 4.1 Supply Side - The shortage of copper concentrate continued due to mine - end disruptions. The strike at Mantoverde copper mine in Chile continued. As of January 16, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 547,000 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 21.76% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.32%. The spot smelting fee of copper concentrate was - 46.4 US dollars/ton. In December, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.178 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 6.8% and a year - on - year increase of 7.54%. The total electrolytic copper output in January is expected to decline month - on - month [31]. 4.2 Downstream Operating Rates - As of January 15, the weekly operating rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises was 57.47%. In December, the operating rates of copper strips, copper bars, copper tubes, and copper foils were 68.21%, 52.74%, 68.84%, and 88.2% respectively. The copper foil industry's operating rate increased for the eighth consecutive month [35]. 4.3 Inventory - As of January 16, the copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 21.35 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 18.26%. As of January 15, the total copper inventory in the mainstream regions of China increased by 17.2% week - on - week, and the total inventory increased by 2.128 million tons year - on - year. As of January 16, the LME copper inventory was 143,600 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 3.31%, and the COMEX copper inventory was 542,900 short tons, with a week - on - week increase of 4.81% [39].
铜周报：美铜关税或暂缓，多头情绪降温-20260119
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2026-01-19 04:50