复苏与供给约束共振，有色景气无忧

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight (Maintain)" for non-ferrous metals and basic metals and processing [7] Core Insights - The non-ferrous metal industry is expected to maintain high prosperity in 2026-2027 due to the resonance of recovery cycles and supply constraints, with copper and aluminum prices influenced by supply hard constraints and demand recovery [1] - The global electrolytic aluminum supply growth is projected to be only 1.7% in 2026, leading to a supply gap of over 800,000 tons despite some demand drag from construction and photovoltaics [2] - The electrolytic copper supply is expected to remain limited with a year-on-year increase of 66,000 tons (2.4%), while demand is driven by U.S. stockpiling and grid construction, resulting in a shift from surplus to shortage [3] - Energy metals such as cobalt and lithium have confirmed price bottoms in 2025, with expectations for improved supply-demand dynamics in 2026-2027 [4] - Strategic metals like tungsten are anticipated to continue facing shortages due to strict mining controls in China, while the magnesium industry is expected to improve as it increasingly substitutes aluminum in lightweight applications [5] Summary by Sections Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metal industry is projected to experience sustained high prosperity in 2026-2027, driven by a combination of supply constraints and demand recovery [1] Aluminum - The global electrolytic aluminum supply is expected to grow at a slow rate of 1.7% in 2026, leading to a supply gap of over 800,000 tons, which supports a bullish outlook for aluminum prices [2] Copper - The electrolytic copper supply is limited with a projected year-on-year increase of 66,000 tons (2.4%), while demand is expected to grow by 93,000 tons (3.3%), resulting in a shift to a supply shortage [3] Energy Metals - Cobalt and lithium prices are expected to rise as supply-demand dynamics improve, with lithium benefiting from increased battery storage demand and cobalt facing supply constraints from Congo [4] Strategic Metals - Tungsten is expected to remain in short supply due to strict mining regulations in China, while magnesium is anticipated to gain market share in lightweight applications, improving its industry outlook [5]