化债进程过半，城投利差呈现哪些特征？

1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The regional spread of urban investment bonds has shown a significant differentiation, with the spread in economically strong regions remaining low and the spread in weak - qualified regions still high. As platforms complete the clearance of implicit debts and exit the "list", market attention will shift to regional economic resilience and platform self - hematopoietic ability [1][15]. - The term spread of low - rated urban investment bonds has widened, indicating market concerns about the long - term solvency of weak - qualified entities after transformation. The market also has high requirements for liquidity compensation for weak - qualified urban investment bonds [17][21]. - Urban investment bonds with a remaining term of less than 2 years have relatively strong safety margins and can be explored according to return requirements. For longer durations, medium - to high - grade urban investment bonds with strong self - hematopoietic abilities and stable cash flows should be selected. Insurance institutions with stable liability ends can appropriately focus on the coupon allocation value of high - grade urban investment bonds over 5 years [2][22]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Analysis of Urban Investment Bond Spreads in the Second Half of Debt Resolution - Regional spread differentiation: The "package debt resolution policy" has effectively alleviated the liquidity risk in weak - qualified regions, causing the regional spread to decline rapidly in the early stage of the policy. Since the second half of 2025, the regional spread has dropped below 150bp, but the absolute spread between strong and weak regions is still significant. The credit spread in economically and fiscally strong regions such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong remains at a low level of 30 - 40bp, while that in weak - qualified regions such as Guizhou is still above 150bp [11][15]. - Term spread differentiation: As the key point approaches, the pricing center of the term spread of urban investment bonds has shifted upward, and the widening range of the term spread of low - rated bonds is relatively higher. For example, the 3Y - 1Y term spread center of AAA - rated urban investment bonds has increased by 10bp from - 6.6bp in 2024, while that of AA(2) - rated bonds has increased by 17bp. The difference between the spreads of 1 - 2Y and 3 - 5Y low - rated urban investment bonds in Jiangsu has reached a new high since the end of 2025 [17][21]. 3.2. Overview of Credit Bond Yields - Last week (January 12 - 18, 2026), credit bond yields mainly declined. Financial bonds outperformed general credit bonds, long - term varieties outperformed short - term ones, and credit bonds mostly outperformed interest - rate bonds of the same term. Among them, bank secondary perpetual bonds in financial bonds performed the best [23]. 3.3. Primary Market - Issuance volume: The issuance scale of credit bonds increased week - on - week but decreased year - on - year, and the net financing scale decreased both week - on - week and year - on - year. From January 12 to 18, the credit bond issuance scale was 351.271 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 41.8 billion yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 216 billion yuan. The net financing amount was 61.793 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 90.3 billion yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 157.8 billion yuan [31]. - Issuance term: The average issuance term of credit bonds decreased week - on - week. Last week, the average issuance term was 2.7 years, a decrease of 0.17 years compared with the previous week. The issuance terms of industrial bonds, urban investment bonds, and financial bonds decreased by 0.57 years, 0.2 years, and 0.46 years respectively [40]. - Issuance cost: The average issuance interest rate of credit bonds decreased. Last week, the average issuance interest rate was 2.18%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.1bp. The average issuance interest rates of industrial bonds, urban investment bonds, and financial bonds decreased by 0.6bp, 1.1bp, and 1.8bp respectively [42]. - Cancellation of issuance: The number and scale of cancelled credit bond issuances increased week - on - week. From January 12 to 18, 15 bonds were cancelled, an increase of 7 compared with the previous week, and the total scale of cancelled issuances was 8.308 billion yuan, an increase of 1.662 billion yuan [46]. 3.4. Secondary Market - Trading volume: The trading volume of various credit bond varieties increased compared with the previous week. The trading volumes of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds increased by more than 40 billion yuan. In terms of remaining term and implicit rating, there were different trends in the trading proportion of each variety [51][52]. - Trading liquidity: The turnover rates of credit bonds increased last week. The turnover rates of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds increased from 1.58%, 1.99%, and 3.21% to 1.80%, 2.10%, and 3.51% respectively. The turnover rates of different terms of each variety showed different trends [55]. - Spread tracking: The spreads of urban investment bonds mostly narrowed last week, with the average narrowing amplitude ranked as 1Y>10Y>7Y>3Y. Except for Shanghai and Gansu, the spreads of each province narrowed. The spreads of AAA - rated industrial bonds mostly widened, while those of AA - rated industrial bonds mostly narrowed. The spreads of bank secondary perpetual bonds, securities company subordinated bonds, and insurance subordinated bonds all narrowed [60][65][66]. 3.5. Weekly Hot Bonds Based on qeubee's bond liquidity scores, the top 20 urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds in terms of liquidity scores were selected for investors' reference [70]. 3.6. Review of Credit Rating Adjustments According to domestic rating agencies, there were no bonds with upgraded or downgraded debt ratings last week [75].