机构行为系列专题四:银行理财的权益增量
China Post Securities·2026-01-19 05:26
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the current low - interest environment and with the rising demand for residents' wealth re - allocation, the improvement of wealth management product returns is likely to follow the path of strengthening the fixed - income base, structurally introducing equity assets, and enhancing risk management capabilities. The wealth management industry will seek a balance between return stability and stage elasticity through structural optimization and improved tool utilization, with the improvement in returns mainly reflected in the enhancement of allocation efficiency [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 1. Wealth Management Scale Seasonal Decline, Newly Issued Products Remain Conservative in the Equity Market - 1.1 Wealth management scale seasonal decline, fixed - deposit maturity brings re - allocation window: By the end of December 2025, the total scale of wealth management products was about 33.2 trillion yuan, a decrease of about 0.8 trillion yuan from the end of November. The year - on - year growth rate in December was 11.8%, lower than that in November and December 2024. High - interest fixed deposits from the first quarter of 2023 will mature in the first quarter of 2026, with a 3 - year fixed - deposit rate of only about 1.25%, creating potential re - allocation power for non - deposit wealth management products [12][13]. - 1.2 Newly issued wealth management products still focus on pure fixed - income and low - weight fixed - income +: From December 15, 2025, to January 15, 2026, newly issued wealth management products were still mainly pure fixed - income products in terms of scale. The funds of newly issued products were concentrated in R1 - R3 risk - level products, especially R2 products. The newly issued fixed - income products accounted for 98.74% of the total scale, and the fixed - income enhancement products accounted for 68.51% of the newly added funds [16]. 3.2 2. Characteristics of Wealth Management's Participation in Equities: Fixed - Income + as the Mainstay, Equity as a Supplement - 2.1 Existing products: Fixed - income + and multi - asset portfolios are the main carriers: Wealth management's participation in the stock market is mainly through R3 - centered fixed - income + and multi - asset portfolios, introducing equity positions indirectly or directly through various means. Pure equity products are limited due to customer group characteristics, regulatory suitability constraints, and channel endowments [18]. - 2.2 Incremental products: Directional attempts of newly issued equity and fixed - income + products: Since 2025, about 80 equity - index wealth management products have been newly issued, with Huaxia Wealth Management being the most active. However, the single - product scale is generally small, and products with a fixed - income nature are more likely to be subscribed [20]. 3.3 3. Performance of Wealth Management Yields in an Equity Bull Market - 3.1 Recent overall performance of wealth management is dominated by partial - stock hybrid categories: In the equity bull market, fixed - income products maintain low - volatility and low - return characteristics, with an average weekly return of 0.02% - 0.06%. The return elasticity of hybrid products is significantly improved, with partial - stock hybrid products having an average weekly return of 0.93%. Equity products have the strongest upward elasticity, with an average weekly return of 0.58%, but their return distribution varies widely [22][23]. - 3.2 High - performing fixed - income + wealth management deeply participates in equity investment: Some high - performing fixed - income + wealth management products have achieved a return of 10% - 15% this year, significantly higher than the performance benchmark. They increase returns by allocating equity ETFs, industry - themed funds, and convertible bond funds on the basis of bond assets [26]. 3.4 4. Feasible Paths for Wealth Management Products to Improve Returns in the Future - Wealth management products should give full play to their channel and customer - group advantages, optimize asset allocation and product structure within the policy boundaries. They should adopt a "gradual and explainable" allocation strategy, moderately include low - volatility equity sectors, and use index - based investment products. Although the reduction of fees has improved the cost - performance of wealth management products, there are still constraints in the sales incentive mechanism, risk constraints, and channel efficiency. In general, the development of fixed - income products containing equity is expected to follow the path of "strengthening the fixed - income base + structural equity participation + refined risk management" [28][29][31].
机构行为系列专题四:银行理财的权益增量 - Reportify