2025年12月金融数据点评：12月金融数据走势平稳，2026年降准降息都有空间

Loan Data - In December 2025, new RMB loans amounted to 910 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 80 billion, with a month-on-month increase of 520 billion[1] - For the entire year of 2025, new RMB loans totaled 16.27 trillion, a decrease of 1.82 trillion compared to the previous year, primarily due to a declining real estate market and weak investment and consumption[7] - December's corporate loans showed a year-on-year increase of 5.8 trillion, while residential loans experienced a negative growth of 916 billion, reflecting weak consumer demand[6] Social Financing - In December 2025, the total social financing (social financing scale) was 22.075 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 646.2 billion, but a month-on-month decrease of 285.1 billion[1][8] - For the year 2025, social financing increased by 3.34 trillion, with government bond financing and corporate bond financing being the main contributors to this growth[9] Monetary Supply - As of the end of December, M2 growth was 8.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, driven by high government bond financing converting into deposits[10] - M1 growth was 3.8%, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating weak consumer and investment activity amid ongoing adjustments in the real estate market[10] Monetary Policy Outlook - The central bank announced a 0.25 percentage point reduction in various structural monetary policy tool rates, indicating potential for further policy rate cuts of 20-30 basis points in 2026[3][12] - There remains a potential for a 1.3 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, suggesting ample room for monetary easing in 2026[13] - The forecast for new RMB loans in 2026 is approximately 17.5 trillion, an increase of about 1.2 trillion from 2025, driven by expected recovery in corporate loans despite ongoing challenges in the real estate sector[14]