国贸期货塑料数据周报-20260119

Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - LLDPE is experiencing a low - level recovery, but the rebound is limited. In the short term, the market has no obvious driving force, and it is expected to be mainly in a volatile state [2][3]. - PP has insufficient driving force, and the rebound is limited. In the short term, the market lacks obvious driving factors, and it is expected to fluctuate [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 LLDPE Analysis 3.1.1 Supply - This week, China's polyethylene production totaled 669,800 tons, a decrease of 2.47% from last week. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene producers was 81.6%, a decrease of 2.07 percentage points from the previous period. Due to new maintenance plans of some enterprises and extended overall maintenance time, the capacity utilization rate decreased compared with last week [3]. 3.1.2 Demand - The average operating rate of downstream products of Chinese LLDPE/LDPE decreased by 0.9% compared with the previous period. The overall operating rate of agricultural films decreased by 1.0%, and the operating rate of PE packaging films decreased by 0.8%. The average operating rate of downstream polyethylene products decreased by 0.3%. In November, China's polyethylene imports were 1.0622 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.93% and a month - on - month increase of 5.04% [3]. 3.1.3 Inventory - The sample inventory of Chinese polyethylene producers was 350,300 tons, a decrease of 45,100 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 11.41%. The inventory trend changed from increasing to decreasing. The inventory of polyethylene social sample warehouses was 484,280 tons, a decrease of 520 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 0.11% and a year - on - year increase of 26.48% [3]. 3.1.4 Basis - The current basis of the main contract is around 199, and the futures price is at a discount [3]. 3.1.5 Profit - The costs of oil - based and coal - based production increased by 220 and 132 yuan/ton respectively compared with the previous period. The costs of ethylene - based, methanol - based, and ethane - based production decreased by 92, 93, and 64 yuan/ton respectively compared with the previous period. The import profits of LLDPE, HDPE, and LDPE changed compared with the previous period [3]. 3.1.6 Valuation - The absolute spot price is relatively low, and the main contract is at a discount [3]. 3.1.7 Macro - Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of rising international oil prices. The macro - sentiment is positive, and the RMB has appreciated [3]. 3.2 PP Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - This week, China's domestic polypropylene production was 780,800 tons, an increase of 1,600 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 0.21% and a year - on - year increase of 5.96%. The average capacity utilization rate of polypropylene was 75.62%, a month - on - month increase of 0.15%, and the capacity utilization rate of Sinopec decreased by 3.33% [4]. 3.2.2 Demand - The average downstream operating rate decreased by 0.07 percentage points to 52.53%. As the Spring Festival approaches, some traditional terminal industries such as packaging, building materials, and daily necessities have entered the shutdown and stockpiling stage in advance. The average operating rate of CPP sample enterprises remained the same as last week [4]. 3.2.3 Inventory - The total commercial inventory of Chinese polypropylene was 695,500 tons, a decrease of 48,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 6.45%. The inventory of Chinese polypropylene producers was 431,000 tons, a decrease of 36,700 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 7.85%. The inventory of Chinese polypropylene traders decreased by 10,800 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 5.27%. The inventory of Chinese polypropylene ports decreased by 500 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 0.70% [4]. 3.2.4 Basis - The current basis of the main contract is around 54, and the futures price is at a discount [4]. 3.2.5 Profit - This week, the profits of coal - based, methanol - based, and PDH - based PP production were repaired, while the profits of oil - based and externally - purchased propylene - based PP production declined. The average weekly import profit of Chinese polypropylene samples was - 243.85 yuan/ton, an increase of 44.18 yuan/ton from last week, a month - on - month increase of 15.34% [4]. 3.2.6 Valuation - The absolute spot price is relatively low, and the main contract is at a premium [4]. 3.2.7 Macro Policy - Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of rising international oil prices. The macro - sentiment is positive, and the RMB has appreciated [4]. 3.3 Main Weekly Data Changes - The report provides a summary of the main weekly data of PP and LLDPE, including futures prices, spot prices, raw material prices, basis, inventory, and operating rates, showing their changes compared with last week [6]. 3.4 PE Fundamental Changes - Supply: This week, China's PE production decreased, and the capacity utilization rate decreased. Some enterprises had new maintenance plans, and the overall maintenance time was extended [3]. - Demand: The demand for PE downstream products decreased, and the operating rates of some products such as agricultural films and packaging films declined. In November, imports increased month - on - month [3]. - Inventory: The inventory of PE producers decreased, and the social sample warehouse inventory increased slightly. The inventory was transferred smoothly from producers to downstream [3]. - Cost: Energy price cuts led to a decrease in production costs [24]. - Profit: The profit of PE production was lower than the same period last year [27]. - Import and Export: PE exports were better than the same period last year [31]. 3.5 PP Fundamental Changes - Capacity and Production: This week, China's PP production increased slightly, and the capacity utilization rate changed [4]. - Inventory: The inventory at various levels was higher than the same period last year, but the port inventory was lower than the same period last year [49][57]. - Downstream Demand: The downstream demand for PP was divergent, and the operating rates of different products changed differently [68]. - Production Profit: The production profit of PP was similar to that of last year [83].