新能源周报：价格高位，波动放大-20260119

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial silicon (SI): Bearish [6] - Polysilicon (PS): Hold [7] - Lithium carbonate (LC): Sideways [82] 2. Core Views of the Report - The prices of new energy products are at a high level with increased volatility. The industrial silicon market is facing a situation of strong supply and weak demand, leading to a bearish outlook. The polysilicon market has poor contract liquidity, so investors are advised to be cautious. The lithium carbonate market is expected to be sideways, with fundamental support but price adjustment pressure at high levels [6][7][82] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Silicon (SI) - Supply Side: The national weekly production was 78,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.77%; the number of open furnaces was 221, a week - on - week decrease of 7. In December, the production was 397,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.15% and a year - on - year increase of 19.75%; the planned production in January was 377,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.87% and a year - on - year increase of 24.26%. The supply side is generally bullish, but there are differences among regions [6] - Demand Side: The weekly production of polysilicon was 22,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 13.27%. The weekly production of silicone was 43,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.90%. The demand side is bearish [6] - Inventory Side: The visible inventory was 510,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.29% and a year - on - year decrease of 23.99%. The inventory side is neutral [6] - Cost and Profit: The national average cost per ton was 9,054.17 yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 0.37%; the gross profit per ton was - 81 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 16 yuan/ton. The cost and profit situation is neutral [6] - Investment View: Bearish, with a weak support for prices below [6] - Trading Strategy: Short position. Risks to watch include production cuts and restarts by large manufacturers and changes in environmental protection policies [6] 3.2 Polysilicon (PS) - Supply Side: The national weekly production was 22,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 13.27%. In December, the production was 115,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.79% and a year - on - year increase of 18.71%; the planned production in January was 107,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.67% and a year - on - year increase of 14.19%. The supply side is bullish [7] - Demand Side: The weekly production of silicon wafers was 10.45GW, a week - on - week increase of 1.91%. The demand side is bullish [7] - Inventory Side: The factory inventory was 316,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.60%, showing continuous inventory accumulation. The registered warehouse receipts were 13,680 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.07%, showing continuous growth. The inventory side is bearish [7] - Cost and Profit: The national average cost per ton was 42,969 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 0.41%; the gross profit per ton was 16,241 yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 174 yuan. The cost and profit situation is bearish [7] - Investment View: Hold. Existing contracts have poor liquidity, and investors are reminded to pay attention to price fluctuations and liquidity risks [7] - Trading Strategy: Hold. Risks to watch include production cuts and restarts by large manufacturers and changes in anti - involution policies [7] 3.3 Lithium Carbonate (LC) - Supply Side: The national weekly production was 22,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.31%. In December, the production was 99,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.04% and a year - on - year increase of 41.00%; the planned production in January was about 98,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.24% and a year - on - year increase of 56.78%. The supply side is neutral [82] - Import Side: In November, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 22,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.64% and a year - on - year increase of 14.66%. The import side is bearish [82] - Material Demand: The weekly production of lithium iron phosphate was 97,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.19%. The weekly production of ternary materials was 18,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.49%. The material demand side is bearish [82] - Terminal Demand: In December, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.718 million, a month - on - month decrease of 8.60% and a year - on - year increase of 12.29%. The terminal demand side is bearish [82] - Inventory Side: The social inventory (including warehouse receipts) was 10,970 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.24%, showing a slight inventory reduction. The inventory side is bullish [82] - Cost and Profit: The cash production cost of lithium mica for external - purchased ore lithium extraction was 148,815 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 14.06%. The cost and profit situation is bearish [82] - Investment View: Sideways. Fundamentals support prices, but there are differences at high prices, and there may be adjustment pressure [82] - Trading Strategy: Sideways position. Risks to watch include production cuts at the mining end, changes in environmental protection policies, and disturbances from large power manufacturers [82]