美国通胀继续降温，国内出口保持韧性

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, domestic commodities reached a peak and then declined, with market sentiment significantly cooling down. Industrial products followed a similar trend, while agricultural products fluctuated downward. The main reasons include the decline of precious metals from their high levels, the mixed US data with the Fed's rate - cut rhythm unchanged, and the rapid changes in geopolitical situations such as in Iran leading to the rise - and - fall of crude oil prices [3]. - Although US inflation continues to slow down, the Fed's rate - cut rhythm has not accelerated further, which has limited impact on boosting market expectations. Domestic policies are starting to take effect, with the coordinated efforts of expanding domestic demand and anti - involution policies expected to improve the long - term low - price situation, but the current weak reality still puts pressure on the rebound of the commodity market. Geopolitical factors such as the situations in Venezuela, Iran, and the Greenland issue are changing rapidly, which may cause disturbances to the prices of energy and metals [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views - Review: Domestic commodities in China showed a trend of rising first and then falling this week, with market sentiment cooling down. Industrial products followed the same pattern, and agricultural products declined. The decline of precious metals, mixed US data, and geopolitical changes in Iran were the main influencing factors [3]. - Overseas: - In December 2025, the overall CPI in the US increased by 2.7% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month, in line with market expectations. The core CPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, lower than expected. Although inflation is cooling, it is still above the 2% policy target, and the probability of a rate cut in January is extremely low, with June being the mainstream market expectation [3]. - The Fed's latest "Beige Book" shows that the US economic activity is picking up, employment is stable, and wages are growing moderately, strengthening the expectation of a soft landing of the US economy [3]. - US President Trump announced tariffs on countries trading with Iran and eight European countries, which will have an impact on international trade [3]. - Domestic: - In December 2025, China's export and import amounts increased year - on - year, and the trade surplus expanded. Fiscal expansion and the high matching of China's advantageous industries with global demand are expected to support export growth [3]. - In December 2025, the stock social financing growth rate decreased slightly, M2 growth rate increased, M1 growth rate decreased, and the "M2 - M1 scissors gap" widened. The financial data showed the characteristics of "abundant in total amount and differentiated in structure" [3]. - The central bank will introduce two policy measures in 2026, which send a signal of coordinated efforts through aggregate and structural policies and reserve space for the use of aggregate tools such as reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts [3]. - Commodity Views: Market sentiment has cooled down, and the commodity market has declined in the short term. The Fed's unchanged rate - cut rhythm, the current weak reality in China, and geopolitical factors are the main reasons [3]. PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - US inflation data in December 2025 showed a cooling trend, but it is still above the policy target, and the market has different expectations for the Fed's rate - cut time [7][11]. - The Fed's "Beige Book" reflects the positive situation of the US economy, strengthening the expectation of a soft landing [3]. - US President Trump's tariff announcements on Iran - trading countries and eight European countries will affect international trade and market sentiment [3]. PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - In December 2025, China's export and import amounts increased year - on - year, and the trade surplus expanded. China's exports to non - US economies were strong, while exports to the US continued to decline [23]. - The financial data in December 2025 showed the characteristics of "abundant in total amount and differentiated in structure", with the stock social financing growth rate decreasing slightly, M2 growth rate increasing, M1 growth rate decreasing, and the "M2 - M1 scissors gap" widening [26]. - The central bank will introduce relevant policies in 2026 to support economic transformation and development and reserve space for the use of aggregate tools [3]. PART FOUR: High - Frequency Data Tracking - High - frequency data on开工率 in the polyester industry chain and the blast furnace开工率 showed certain trends and fluctuations [33][35]. - Data on agricultural product prices such as vegetables, pork, and fruits, as well as the agricultural product wholesale price 200 index, showed different price trends [44].