金融属性放大，BR价格波动剧烈

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: The report gives a rating of "oscillating" for the short - term investment in the synthetic rubber industry, and "long - term bullish" for the long - term [4]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of butadiene are strong, while the "high - start, high - inventory" situation of butadiene rubber continues. The number of warehouse receipts on the futures market has increased, and the recent futures volume and price have increased simultaneously. In the short term, the large increase in BR, combined with risk premiums, will lead to a phased adjustment of the futures market. In December, the export volume of synthetic rubber is expected to continue to increase, and the import volume of butadiene will decrease month - on - month. With long - term positive expectations, the price of synthetic rubber is expected to have further upward space [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - During this period, the price of butadiene rubber in the Shandong market fluctuated strongly, and the spot price range moved up to 11,500 - 12,200 yuan/ton. The butadiene end continued to rise due to good domestic demand and rumors of butadiene export transactions, causing a significant increase in the production cost of butadiene rubber. On the supply side, the capacity utilization rate of domestic butadiene rubber remained high, and most brand spot resources were sufficient. The pressure on the supply side affected the upward movement of the negotiation center. The mainstream supply price of butadiene rubber increased slightly during the week, and the theoretical production profit turned into a loss. Traders actively tried to raise prices, but the downstream terminal procurement was negative and the price - pressing was firm. Although the spot price center gradually moved up, the transaction performance was poor [6]. 3.2 Impact Factors 3.2.1 Supply - Last week, the domestic butadiene production was [missing data] tons (72%), with a capacity utilization rate of 69.37%; the high - cis butadiene rubber production was [missing data] tons (68%), with a capacity utilization rate of 79%. In terms of butadiene, Fujian United Petrochemical (180,000 tons) restarted on the 15th, and Hainan Refining & Chemical (130,000 tons) is expected to shut down at the end of the month. The butadiene production is expected to maintain a downward trend. In terms of butadiene rubber, except for the shutdown of the plants of Maoming Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical, the loads of other butadiene rubber plants are at a high level. The butadiene rubber plant of Maoming Petrochemical is expected to restart at the end of the month, and the supply will continue to be sufficient [4]. 3.2.2 Demand - For semi - steel tires, in the first ten days of the month, the market sales became increasingly sluggish, the terminal demand weakened, the channel transactions were sporadic, and the replenishment willingness continued to decrease. The factories launched a certain range of promotions this month, but the market has not yet had a clear guidance. For all - steel tires, in the first ten days of the month, the stocking willingness was low. Some merchants rushed to complete the annual task volume last month, and the inventory expanded significantly, weakening the ability to continuously purchase. Although some factories have clearly announced the profit - sharing policy for January, the inventory during the period is large, and the existing inventory is mainly digested. Some replenishment willingness is postponed to the middle or late ten days of the month [4]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Last week, the butadiene port inventory was 44,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.99%. The inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber enterprises + traders was 34,940 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.50%. In terms of butadiene, although the high - price transactions of refineries were slightly slow, affecting the slow inventory reduction, there was no obvious inventory pressure overall. The arrival of imported ships was limited during the week, and the downstream raw material inventory was normally consumed. Although the market is expected to be strong in the later period, it is in the inventory reduction cycle. In terms of butadiene rubber, the inventories of production enterprises and trading enterprises have increased to varying degrees, and the warehouse receipts have increased significantly [4]. 3.2.4 Basis - The basis of butadiene rubber in North China is - 365 yuan/ton, in East China is - 265 yuan/ton, and in South China is - 215 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2.5 Spread/Price Ratio - The spread between RU - BR is 4,020 yuan/ton (12%); the spread between NR - BR is 930 yuan/ton (- 0.53%); the price ratio of BR - SC is - 0.35% [4]. 3.2.6 Profit - The production gross profit of butadiene oxidative dehydrogenation is 990 yuan/ton; the production gross profit of C4 extraction is 2,680.31 yuan/ton. The production gross profit of butadiene rubber is - 237 yuan/ton, and the gross profit margin is - 1.92% [4]. 3.2.7 Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors - China's CPI year - on - year growth rate in December 2025 reached the fastest in nearly three years; the US ADP employment data in December showed that labor demand was still weak. The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council announced that, with the approval of the State Council, Sinopec and China National Aviation Fuel will implement a restructuring. Iran is implementing a national - scale network control, which is related to continuous protests in many places. Trump arrested Maduro and summoned enterprises such as ExxonMobil and Chevron to the White House to discuss the oil investment plan in Venezuela. The Trump administration's attempt to occupy Greenland and seize Russian oil tankers has fermented again, triggering market panic about geopolitics [4]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Appropriately leave a long position, and be vigilant against the risk of capital profit - taking and callback. Arbitrage: Pay attention to going long on BR and short on NR/RU. Key factors to watch: downstream demand, cost changes, plant maintenance conditions, and geopolitics [4]