生鲜软商品板块日度策略报告-20260119

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soft commodity and fresh fruit sectors present complex market conditions with varying supply - demand dynamics and price trends. Each commodity has its own unique market logic and trading strategies, and investors need to make decisions based on these factors[3][8][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation - Fresh Fruit Futures: For Apple 2605, it's recommended to hold long positions cautiously with support at 8800 - 8900 and pressure at 11000 - 11500. For Red Date 2605, short - term long positions are recommended with support at 8700 - 9000 and pressure at 9500 - 9800[19]. - Soft Commodity Futures: For Sugar 2605, light - position short - term long positions are recommended with support at 5200 - 5230 and pressure at 5350 - 5380. For Pulp 2605, trading within the range with a bearish bias is advised, with support at 5300 - 5350 and pressure at 5550 - 5700. For Offset Printing Paper 2605, range trading is recommended with support at 4000 - 4100 and pressure at 4300 - 4350. For Cotton 2605, hold long positions cautiously with support at 13500 - 13600 and pressure at 15400 - 15500[19]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes 3.2.1 Apple Market - Fundamentals: In November 2025, fresh apple exports were about 121,600 tons, up 51.28% month - on - month and 12.42% year - on - year. As of January 15, 2026, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 655,570 tons, down 17800 tons week - on - week and 48800 tons year - on - year[20]. - Spot Market: This week, the mainstream transaction prices in production areas were stable, with increased cold - storage transactions and packaging. In Shandong, the cold - storage prices were stable, and the number of buyers increased. In Shaanxi, the prices were stable, and the cold - storage packaging volume increased. In the sales areas, the arrival volume was similar to last week, the overall sales were stable, and citrus had an impact on apple sales[20][21][22]. 3.2.2 Red Date Market As of January 11, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 15,300 tons, down 349 tons week - on - week (2.23%) and up 41.27% year - on - year. The acquisition in the production area is basically over, and the market is expected to enter a peak sales period with the approaching of the festival[23]. 3.2.3 Sugar Market - In 2025, the actual arrival of out - quota raw sugar in China was 2.2161 million tons, up 1.2823 million tons year - on - year. - In the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season as of January 12, Thailand's sugar production decreased by 21.18% year - on - year, and Brazil's sugar exports in the first two weeks of January increased by 1.86% year - on - year[25]. 3.2.4 Pulp Market In December, the pulp price was stable. Some companies raised the price of BHK sent to China and other Asian markets by $20/ton, and two large pulp and paper integrated enterprises' purchases tightened the supply and pushed up the price[30]. 3.2.5 Offset Printing Paper Market The inventory days increased by 0.76% compared to last Thursday, and the increase rate narrowed by 0.93 percentage points. The social demand was weak, and the overall inventory pressure increased. The operating rate was 55.24%, up 1.02 percentage points month - on - month, and the increase rate expanded by 0.23 percentage points[31]. 3.2.6 Cotton Market - In December 2025, Vietnam's textile and clothing exports increased by 22.94% month - on - month and 8.35% year - on - year. - India's cotton production in the 2025 - 2026 season is expected to increase slightly by 2.4%[32]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - Futures Market: Apple 2605 closed at 9807, down 1.28%; Red Date 2605 closed at 9040, down 0.99%; Sugar 2605 closed at 5280, down 0.36%; Pulp 2605 closed at 5436, down 1.06%; Cotton 2605 closed at 14675, down 0.91%[32]. - Spot Market: Apple was 4.45 yuan/jin, unchanged month - on - month and up 0.45 yuan year - on - year; Red Date was 9.40 yuan/kg, down 0.10 yuan month - on - month and 5.30 yuan year - on - year; Sugar was 5360 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan month - on - month and 590 yuan year - on - year; Pulp (Shandong Yinxing) was 5550 yuan, unchanged month - on - month and down 1000 yuan year - on - year; Offset Printing Paper (Taiyang Tianyang - Tianjin) was 4450 yuan, unchanged month - on - month and down 500 yuan year - on - year; Cotton was 15972 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan month - on - month and 1235 yuan year - on - year[40]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation There is no specific text description of the basis situation, only references to relevant figures are provided[52][55][57]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - Apple 5 - 10 spread is 1402, with a negative month - on - month change of 39 and a positive year - on - year change of 1913, expected to be volatile and strong, and it's recommended to buy on dips. - Red Date 5 - 9 spread is - 215, with a negative month - on - month change of 25 and a positive year - on - year change of 95, and it's recommended to wait and see. - Sugar 5 - 9 spread is - 11, with a negative month - on - month change of 6 and a negative year - on - year change of 113, and it's recommended to wait and see. - Cotton 5 - 9 spread is - 150, with a negative month - on - month change of 30 and a positive year - on - year change of 20, expected to be volatile and weak, and it's recommended to sell on rallies[60]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Position Situation There is no specific text description of the futures position situation, only references to relevant figures are provided[67][71][86]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - Apple: 0 warehouse receipts, unchanged month - on - month and year - on - year. - Red Date: 3211 warehouse receipts, up 232 month - on - month and down 759 year - on - year. - Sugar: 14126 warehouse receipts, up 4387 month - on - month and down 7939 year - on - year. - Pulp: 149134 warehouse receipts, unchanged month - on - month and down 196294 year - on - year. - Cotton: 9329 warehouse receipts, up 493 month - on - month and up 2812 year - on - year[93]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data There is no specific text description of the option - related data, only references to relevant figures are provided[96][101][107].