格林大华期货专题报告：2024格林大华期货专题报告

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The global rapeseed supply pattern in 2026 will shift to a looser state, with the inventory-to-consumption ratio rising, mainly driven by the increased production of rapeseed in Europe and Canada [18]. - The global soybean market in 2026 is expected to have a loose supply, with prices under downward pressure due to the record - high harvest in South America and the adjustment of China's procurement strategy [30]. - The domestic protein market in 2026 will face various factors, and different trading strategies are recommended for different time periods [35][36]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Sino - Canadian Trade Dispute - In 2024, Canada imposed a 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles on October 1st and a 25% tariff on Chinese steel and aluminum products on October 22nd [4]. - In 2025, China counter - imposed a 100% tariff on Canadian canola oil, rapeseed meal, and peas, and a 25% tariff on aquatic products and pork on March 8th. A 75.8% temporary anti - dumping deposit on Canadian rapeseed was preliminarily ruled and implemented in August. Canadian rapeseed exports to China basically stagnated, and China sought alternative supplies from India and Russia [5]. - In 2026, Canada and China reached a preliminary trade agreement. Canada will allow up to 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles to enter at a preferential tariff rate of 6.1%. The tariff on Canadian rapeseed in China is expected to drop to about 15% by March 1st [6]. 2. China's Rapeseed Import Pattern in 2025 - The import sources have become more diversified, mainly including Canada, Australia, Russia, and Mongolia. Canada is still the largest supplier, but its import volume decreased significantly. Australia is an important supplementary source. Russia's import volume increased significantly, and Mongolia's import volume doubled [10][11]. - In the first half of 2025, the total import volume was 1.8 million tons, with Canada accounting for 94.47%. In the second half, the import volume decreased monthly due to Sino - Canadian trade policies [12]. 3. Global Rapeseed Supply - Demand Balance in 2026 - The global rapeseed inventory - to - consumption ratio will rise, and the supply pattern will become looser, mainly due to the increased production of rapeseed in Europe and Canada. The EU's rapeseed planting area and output are expected to recover, and Canada's rapeseed inventory may increase to 2.5 million tons due to policy - restricted exports. Australia's rapeseed planting area and output are expected to increase [18]. 4. Australia's Rapeseed Supply and Export - From 2021 - 2024, Australia's rapeseed output reached 8.4 million tons in 2022 and remained around 6 million tons in other years. From 2021 - 2022, its export volume was between 5 - 6 million tons. Domestic consumption has decreased significantly since 2022, and most are for export [26]. 5. Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance in 2026 - The global soybean market is expected to have a loose supply, and prices will face downward pressure. South America's bumper harvest will offset the US's production decline, and global inventory is expected to start destocking. The US will increase its soybean planting area by 4% in 2026, while the corn planting area will decrease by 3.8%. China's soybean procurement strategy will be diversified, and the procurement volume of US soybeans is expected to shrink to 8 - 9 million tons [30]. - In China, the state - reserve imported soybeans were auctioned continuously in 2024. In 2025, the import volume remained high, and the supply was sufficient [31]. 6. Outlook for the Domestic Protein Market in 2026 - There are macro risks such as Sino - US disputes and geopolitical situations. Fundamentally, there are factors such as the expected change in US soybean planting area, good weather, large supply from Brazil, sufficient domestic soybean reserves, stable demand from livestock farming, price - competitive alternative proteins, and the return of Canadian rapeseed [35]. - Different trading strategies are recommended for different time periods: from December 2025 to March 2026, prepare in advance due to tightened customs policies; from April to June 2026, focus on market trends and avoid buying basis; from July to September 2026, buy on dips; from October to December 2026, make decisions after the third - quarter market [35][36].