Soochow Securities·2026-01-19 05:07Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the gas industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that heating demand and escalating US-Iran tensions have led to a significant increase in overseas gas prices, with US HH prices rising by 10.2% and European TTF prices soaring by 32.4% as of January 16, 2026 [5][10] - The report emphasizes the importance of the commercial aerospace sector in enhancing the value and market share of specialty gases, particularly for companies like Jiufeng Energy [5] Price Tracking - As of January 16, 2026, the week-on-week changes in gas prices are as follows: US HH +10.2%, European TTF +32.4%, East Asia JKM +16.6%, China LNG ex-factory +0.9%, and China LNG CIF +10.1%, with prices reaching 0.8, 3.3, 2.8, 2.6, and 2.6 yuan per cubic meter respectively [10][11] Supply and Demand Analysis - The report notes that the US gas price has increased due to heightened tensions in the Middle East, with a week-on-week decrease in storage levels of 710 billion cubic feet, bringing total storage to 31,850 billion cubic feet, a year-on-year increase of 2.2% [16] - European gas prices have surged due to significantly lower temperatures compared to previous years, with a reported consumption increase of 4.1% year-on-year for the first nine months of 2025, totaling 313.8 billion cubic meters [17] Domestic Market Overview - The report indicates that domestic gas prices have increased by 0.9% week-on-week, with a total apparent consumption of 392 billion cubic meters in China for the first eleven months of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.5% [21][26] - The domestic LNG import price averaged 3,384 yuan per ton in November 2025, showing a year-on-year decrease of 18.3% [26] Pricing Mechanism Progress - The report states that 67% of cities have implemented residential pricing adjustments, with an average increase of 0.22 yuan per cubic meter, indicating ongoing efforts to optimize costs for city gas companies [36] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that can optimize costs and benefit from the ongoing pricing adjustments, highlighting New Hope Energy, China Resources Gas, and Kunlun Energy as key investment opportunities [5] - It also suggests monitoring companies with quality long-term contracts and flexible operations, such as Jiufeng Energy and New Hope Holdings, for their potential in the commercial aerospace sector [5]