战术性大类资产配置周度点评（20260118）：特朗普扰动地缘政治局势，建议超配黄金-20260119

Group 1 - The report suggests a tactical overweight in A/H shares, US stocks, and gold, while recommending an underweight in US Treasuries and crude oil due to geopolitical tensions exacerbated by the Trump administration's policies [1][4][14]. - Multiple factors support the performance of Chinese equities, including expectations of expanded fiscal deficits and more proactive economic policies as the 14th Five-Year Plan begins [14][15]. - The report highlights the resilience and safe-haven attributes of gold amid rising geopolitical uncertainties and ongoing central bank purchases, suggesting a tactical overweight in gold [16][14]. Group 2 - The report indicates that the US labor market is cooling, and the decline in energy prices along with slower wage growth may provide the Federal Reserve with more room to adjust monetary policy, leading to a cautious outlook on US Treasuries [15][14]. - The report notes that the geopolitical situation surrounding oil is expected to intensify, recommending an underweight in crude oil due to consistent supply-demand expectations and the Trump administration's inclination towards lower oil prices [16][14]. - The tactical asset allocation model suggests a 45% allocation to equities, 45% to bonds, and 10% to commodities, with specific weights assigned to various asset classes [18][20].