造纸承压，库存高企，上行乏力

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The paper pulp market continues to have a supply - demand imbalance with stable imports, a slight increase in domestic broad - leaf pulp output, a decrease in chemimechanical pulp, rising port inventories, and weak downstream demand [6]. - The offset paper market is in a weak supply - demand balance, with a slight decrease in production, low user purchasing enthusiasm, and an increase in enterprise inventory [6]. - The paper pulp valuation shows a differentiated and volatile trend, and the offset paper valuation is at a low level with increasing losses per ton [6]. - Trading strategies include short - selling SP2505, shorting OP2502, paying attention to the SP3 - 5 positive spread arbitrage opportunity, keeping a wait - and - see attitude for SP options, and selling OP2602 - C - 4200 for OP options [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - The paper pulp market has an oversupply situation. The import volume on the supply side is stable, the output of domestic broad - leaf pulp increases slightly to 25.2 tons, and the chemimechanical pulp output decreases by 0.2 tons. Port inventories rise to 201.4 tons. Downstream demand is weak overall, with a decrease in the output of tissue paper and coated paper, and a narrow increase in the output of white cardboard and offset paper [6]. - The offset paper market is in a weak supply - demand balance. The output is 20.3 tons with a slight decrease, the capacity utilization rate is 52.0%. The demand is dominated by social orders, user purchasing enthusiasm is low, the shipment volume decreases by 1.0%, and enterprise inventory increases slightly by 0.4% to 140.3 tons [6]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategies - For single - side trading, adopt a short - selling strategy for SP2505 and a bearish operation for OP2502 [6]. - For arbitrage, pay attention to the SP3 - 5 positive spread arbitrage opportunity [6]. - For options, keep a wait - and - see attitude for SP options and sell OP2602 - C - 4200 for OP options [6]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 Offset Paper - Supply: The current production of domestic offset paper decreases slightly. The output is 20.3 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons (0.5% decline) from the previous period, and the capacity utilization rate drops to 52.0%. The weekly average profit is - 527.7 yuan/ton, and the gross profit margin drops by 0.5 percentage points [10]. - Inventory: The current inventory of offset paper production enterprises is 140.3 tons, a 0.4% increase from the previous period. It is expected that the inventory will continue to rise in the next period [14]. 3.2.2 Coated Paper - Supply: The current production of domestic coated paper decreases slightly. The output is 8.3 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons (1.2% decline) from the previous period, and the capacity utilization rate drops to 61.6%. The weekly average profit is - 58.9 yuan/ton, and the gross profit margin drops by 0.4 percentage points [17]. - Inventory: The current inventory of coated paper production enterprises is 37.7 tons, a 1.1% increase from the previous period. It is expected that the inventory will increase slightly in the next period [21]. 3.2.3 Domestic Pulp - Supply: The sample output of Chinese broad - leaf pulp is 25.2 tons, an increase of 0.1 tons from the previous week. The sample output of chemimechanical pulp is 23.7 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons from the previous period. The production profit of domestic broad - leaf pulp is relatively stable, and the overall profitability is better than that of chemimechanical pulp [24]. 3.2.4 Wood Pulp - Supply: The market average price of domestic chemimechanical pulp remains flat at 2575 yuan/ton, and the production profit is at a low level. As of January 15, 2026, the sample inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports is 201.4 tons, a 0.3% increase from the previous period [27]. 3.2.5 Pulp Demand - Tissue Paper: The current supply of domestic tissue paper raw paper decreases slightly. The output of sample paper enterprises is 29.30 tons, a 0.10% decrease from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate is 68.06%. As of January 15, 2026, the total inventory is 63.09 tons, a 0.21% increase from the previous period, and the inventory days increase by 0.20% [31]. - White Cardboard: The current output of white cardboard increases. The output is 38.4 tons, a 0.26% increase from the previous period, and the capacity utilization rate is 80.67%. The production plant inventory is 107.5 tons, a 1.90% increase from the previous period. It is expected that the inventory will remain stable in the next period [35]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking 3.3.1 Offset Paper and Coated Paper Prices - The average enterprise price of offset paper is stable. The tax - included average price of 70g offset paper is 4642.9 yuan/ton. The price range of 70g natural - white offset paper is 4400 - 4500 yuan/ton, and that of 70g high - white offset paper is 4700 - 4900 yuan/ton [43]. - The average enterprise price of coated paper is stable. The tax - included average price of 157g coated paper is 4975.0 yuan/ton, and the price range of 157g flat - sheet coated paper is 4700 - 4900 yuan/ton [43]. 3.3.2 Various Pulp Prices - The spot tax - included average price of softwood pulp is 5542 yuan/ton, a 0.3% decrease from the previous period [48]. - The spot tax - included average price of hardwood pulp is 4727 yuan/ton, a 0.6% increase from the previous period, but the daily price shows a downward trend during the week [48]. - The spot tax - included average price of chemimechanical pulp is 3800 yuan/ton, remaining flat from the previous period [48]. - The spot tax - included average price of unbleached pulp is 5029 yuan/ton, a 1.53% decrease from the previous period [48].