蛋白数据日报-20260119

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The USDA's January supply - demand report maintained the 2025/26 US soybean yield at 33 bushels per acre, further reduced US soybean exports to 1.575 billion bushels, and increased the end - of - season inventory forecast for 2025/26 to 350 million bushels, with the US soybean stock - to - consumption ratio rising to 8.2%. The report also predicted Brazil's 2025/26 soybean output at 178 million tons and kept Argentina's soybean output unchanged. As Brazil's harvest progresses, the QNF premium in Brazil is expected to reflect the selling pressure of a bumper soybean harvest. Coupled with the pressure on the rapeseed - meal relationship due to improved China - Canada relations, the M05 contract is expected to face downward pressure [7] - The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels, and it is expected that the inventory will be depleted at an accelerated pace in January. The number of days of soybean meal inventory for feed enterprises has slightly increased [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Basis Data - On January 16, 43% soybean meal spot basis: Dalian was 493 (up 13), Tianjin was 433 (down 7), Rizhao was 393 (up 13), Zhangjiagang was 373 (down 7), Dongguan was 373 (up 13), Zhanjiang was 423 (down 7), and Fangcheng was 433 (up 13). Rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 157 (up 28). M3 - 5 was 351 (down 9), and RM5 - 9 was - 68 (unchanged) [4] 3.2. Inventory Data - The report presents charts of national major oil mills' soybean inventory, China's port soybean inventory, national major oil mills' soybean meal inventory, and feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days from 2020 - 2026, but no specific numerical data is summarized [9][10] 3.3.开机 and压榨情况 (开机 and Pressing Situation) - The report shows the charts of the national major oil mills'开机 rate (operating rate), soybean pressing volume, and downstream提货量 (pick - up volume) from 2020 - 2026, but no specific numerical data is summarized [6] 3.4. Spread Data - The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 600, and the spread on the main contract was 472 (up 15). The Brazilian soybean CNF premium in 2025 and the import soybean gross profit on the futures market are presented in the chart, but no specific numerical data is summarized. The exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 6.9381, and the futures market crushing profit was 165 yuan/ton [9] 3.5. International Data - As of January 10, 2026, Brazil's soybean harvest rate was 0.6%. As of January 14, Argentina's soybean sowing progress was 93.9%, slightly behind the same period last year. The proportion of soybeans in good condition was 61% (last week: 65%, same period last year: 38%). Based on domestic ship - booking, the expected domestic soybean arrivals in January were 6.2 million tons, 5.1 million tons in February, and 4.58 million tons in March [7]