生鲜软商品板块周度策略报告-20260119

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The Zhengzhou sugar futures price is under pressure due to India's increased sugar production and global oversupply, but there may be support during the Brazilian off - season and the Ramadan stocking period. It is recommended to wait and see and consider double - selling out - of - the - money options [4]. - The pulp market has limited upside space before further overseas supply cuts or new production cut news, and the 2605 contract is recommended to be short - allocated on rallies [4]. - The double - offset paper price is under pressure due to weakened cost support, but the widening basis may support the futures price. It is recommended to close long positions and wait and see [5][6]. - The cotton futures price may adjust narrowly in the short term and is expected to move up in the medium - to - long term. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 05 contract cautiously [7]. - The apple futures price may adjust at a high level in the short term and is expected to be supported in the medium term. It is recommended to buy on dips [8]. - The jujube futures price is oscillating at a low level and may rise. Aggressive investors can hold reverse spreads or long positions with protective puts [9][10]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Plate Strategy Recommendation - Fruit Futures: - Apple 2605: Reduce long positions. The supply has medium - term support but the marginal driving force is decreasing. The support interval is 8800 - 8900, and the pressure interval is 11000 - 11500 [18]. - Jujube 2605: Reduce short positions. The spot market has entered the consumption peak season, and inventory has peaked and started to decline. The support interval is 8900 - 9000, and the pressure interval is 9300 - 9700 [18]. - Soft Commodity Futures: - Sugar 2605: Wait and see. There are differences in China's sugar production rate, and the international market supply is still sufficient. The support interval is 5200 - 5230, and the pressure interval is 5350 - 5380 [18]. - Pulp 2605: Try short - allocation. The impact of supply bullish factors is weakening, and the downstream paper products are in the off - season. The short - term pulp price is under pressure, but the low point of the futures price follows the rising cost of warehouse receipts. The support interval is 5300 - 5350, and the pressure interval is 5550 - 5600 [18]. - Double - offset Paper 2605: Wait and see. The fundamental situation has not changed much. The short - term futures price fluctuates with the pulp price, and the widening basis supports the double - offset paper futures price. The support interval is 4000 - 4100, and the pressure interval is 4300 - 4400 [18]. - Cotton 2605: Reduce long positions. There is a game between strong expectation and weak reality, and the futures price is expected to move up. The support interval is 13500 - 13500, and the pressure interval is 15400 - 15500 [18]. Part 2: Plate Weekly Market Review - Futures Market Review: - Apple 2605: The closing price is 9541, down 148 (- 1.53%) for the week [19]. - Jujube 2605: The closing price is 8875, down 275 (- 3.01%) for the week [19]. - Sugar 2605: The closing price is 5258, down 30 (- 0.57%) for the week [19]. - Pulp 2605: The closing price is 5362, down 188 (- 3.39%) for the week [19]. - Double - offset Paper 2602: The closing price is 4048, down 148 (- 3.53%) for the week [19]. - Cotton 2605: The closing price is 14590, down 85 (- 0.58%) for the week [19]. - Spot Market Review: - Apple: The spot price is 4.70 yuan/jin, with no change from the previous period and an increase of 0.45 yuan year - on - year [24]. - Jujube: The spot price is 9.40 yuan/kg, down 0.10 yuan from the previous period and down 5.30 yuan year - on - year [24]. - Sugar: The spot price is 5360 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous period and a decrease of 550 yuan year - on - year [24]. - Pulp: The spot price of Shandong Yinxing pulp is 5550 yuan, with no change from the previous period and a decrease of 1000 yuan year - on - year [24]. - Cotton: The spot price is 15931 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan from the previous period and an increase of 1182 yuan year - on - year [24]. Part 3: Plate Basis Situation No specific text summary information provided, only figure references [29][30]. Part 4: Inter - month Spread Situation No specific text summary information provided, only figure references [34][36]. Part 5: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - Apple: The number of warehouse receipts is 0, with no change from the previous period and no change year - on - year [42]. - Jujube: The number of warehouse receipts is 3271, an increase of 60 from the previous period and a decrease of 699 year - on - year [42]. - Sugar: The number of warehouse receipts is 14126, with no change from the previous period and a decrease of 7939 year - on - year [42]. - Pulp: The number of warehouse receipts is 149134, with no change from the previous period and a decrease of 196156 year - on - year [42]. - Cotton: The number of warehouse receipts is 9666, an increase of 337 from the previous period and an increase of 3166 year - on - year [42]. - Cotton Yarn: The number of warehouse receipts is 70, with no change from the previous period and an increase of 7 year - on - year [42]. Part 6: Option - related Data - Option Strategy Recommendation: - Apple 2605: Sell out - of - the - money put options as the bullish factors have been partially realized, and the futures price is in the high - level range [45]. - Jujube 2605: Sell deep out - of - the - money call options as new jujubes are concentrated on the market and the spot inventory is high [45]. - Sugar 2605: Consider double - selling call and put options as there are differences in China's sugar production and the international market supply is in surplus [45]. - Cotton 2605: Sell out - of - the - money put options as there is a game between strong expectation and weak reality, and the futures price is expected to move up [45]. - Pulp 2605: Sell put options with an exercise price of 4900 and call options with an exercise price of 5300 as there is cost support but weak upward fundamental driving force [45]. - Option Data Figures: There are figures for option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratios, historical volatility, and implied volatility of apple, sugar, and cotton, but no specific text summary [46][48][54]. Part 7: Plate Futures Fundamental Situation - Apple: - Weather Conditions in Producing Areas: There are figures for minimum temperature and precipitation in Shandong and Shaanxi, but no specific text summary [56]. - Export Situation: There is a figure for apple export volume, but no specific text summary [59]. - Inventory Situation: There are figures for China's weekly apple storage inventory, as well as in Shandong and Shaanxi, but no specific text summary [60]. - Jujube: There are figures for jujube trading volume in Henan and Hebei and the arrival volume in Guangdong Ruyifang Market, but no specific text summary [61]. - Sugar: There are figures for national sugar industrial inventory, monthly import volume, and the spot - futures spread, but no specific text summary [63][65][67]. - Pulp: There are figures for domestic pulp inventory, global producer inventory days, paper product weekly production, and pulp import volume, but no specific text summary [71][75][76]. - Double - offset Paper: There are figures for double - offset paper capacity utilization, production, enterprise inventory, and apparent consumption, but no specific text summary [78]. - Cotton: There are figures for retail sales, inventory, and consumption data in the US, UK, and Japan, as well as China's cotton industrial and commercial inventory, import volume, and textile industry data, but no specific text summary [81][82][88].