石化行业周报：受地缘影响，原油周内计价风险溢价-20260119

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Stronger than the market, maintained [1] Core Insights - Focus: Expectations for marginal improvement in PX and PTA supply and demand this year. The price spread between PX (China main port) and naphtha (Japan) has started to decline, recorded at 326.08 USD/ton on the 15th, with attention on the potential for the price spread to strengthen again. Geopolitical influences from Iran have led to a risk premium in oil pricing this week [2] - Review: The performance of the oil and petrochemical index was average this week, with a decrease of 0.27% compared to last week. Among the sub-indices, oilfield services performed the best within the oil and petrochemical sector, with an increase of 1.63% [5][3] - Oil: Crude oil prices increased; U.S. crude oil inventories rose while gasoline inventories fell [6][10] - Polyester: The price of polyester filament remained stable; inventory days for different varieties of polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang varied, with a decrease in weaving machine operating rates [13][20] - Olefins: Sample PE spot prices increased, while petrochemical inventories of polyolefins decreased [23][26] Summary by Sections Oil - Crude oil prices increased, with Brent crude futures and TTF natural gas futures closing at 64.47 USD/barrel and 37.66 EUR/MWh, respectively, marking increases of 1.6% and 32.1% compared to last week [7] - U.S. crude oil and petroleum product inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 6,210 thousand barrels; gasoline, jet fuel, and distillate fuel oil inventories changed by -35, -892, and -29 thousand barrels, respectively [12] Polyester - The price of polyester filament remained stable, with POY, DTY, and FDY prices at 6,550, 7,750, and 6,800 CNY/ton, respectively, with price spreads increasing by 24 CNY/ton for each type compared to last week [15] - Inventory days for polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were reported as 17.4, 23.2, and 12.8 days for FDY, DTY, and POY, respectively, with weaving machine operating rates decreasing by 0.6% [21][20] Olefins - Sample PE spot prices rose to 6,920 CNY/ton, reflecting a 0.29% increase from the previous week [26] - Petrochemical inventories of polyolefins decreased to 490,000 tons, down by 80,000 tons from last week [26]