Report Investment Rating - The industry is expected to move in a volatile manner [3] Core Viewpoints - For cotton, the sales progress in Xinjiang has reached 80%, with 20% of the cotton remaining. The futures price has reached the first target of 15,000 yuan/ton, and funds have reduced their positions by 110,000 lots. Considering the capital cost, it's about 14,200 - 14,300 yuan/ton. Currently, there are 420,000 tons of warehouse receipts, and the inland delivery storage capacity is saturated and tight. The reduction in Xinjiang's planting area may be limited, but the demand for cotton in Xinjiang is expanding. Due to the rapid rise in raw material prices, the immediate profit of yarn has been significantly compressed, downstream inventory has increased, and the operating rate has decreased. With the Spring Festival approaching and the price difference of imported yarn widening, the futures need to cooperate with a short - term correction. Overall, it should be treated as a short - to medium - term decline or a sideways movement, but the correction depth is limited [5]. - For cotton yarn, it gets support from the raw material end, while there is no obvious improvement in orders from the demand end. Downstream buyers mainly make rigid - demand purchases, so cotton yarn will continue to follow the volatile market in the short term [5]. Summary by Directory 01. Weekly Summary - Cotton: Xinjiang's sales progress is 80%, futures price has reached 15,000 yuan/ton, funds have reduced positions. There are issues with storage capacity, cost, demand, and downstream conditions, suggesting short - to medium - term decline or sideways movement [5]. - Cotton yarn: Supported by raw materials, but with no obvious improvement in demand, it will follow the volatile market [5]. 02. Market Review - Zheng cotton fluctuated sharply after reaching a relatively high level. The immediate profits of Xinjiang and inland spinning enterprises have been compressed, but the inventory pressure of finished products is not large. The operating rate of inland spinning enterprises has decreased steadily, while that of Xinjiang spinning enterprises remains strong. After the decline of Zheng cotton, many spinning enterprises made point - price purchases based on the locked basis earlier. There is still rigid demand for cotton raw materials, and the hedging pressure above Zheng cotton is small. The industry expectations have been traded in stages. Attention should be paid to the actual reduction of Xinjiang's cotton planting area in 2026/27. If the reduction is large, it will be beneficial to cotton prices in the long - term. Also, if the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton continues to widen, attention should be paid to the import of foreign cotton at a 40% tariff and the possibility of the state reserve releasing imported cotton [8]. - The sales of pure cotton yarn categories are clearly differentiated. Low - count and regular categories face prominent sales pressure, with actual transaction prices dropping or offering discounts of 100 - 200 yuan/ton. The market atmosphere is weak. However, the orders for combed high - count yarn are continuously good, with firm prices and relatively good order schedules [8]. 03. International Macroeconomics - In the US, data such as ISM manufacturing PMI, ADP employment, export and import volumes, trade balance, unemployment rate, CPI, PPI, and retail sales have been released. The Fed's interest rate decision is pending [10]. - In the Eurozone, CPI, PPI, and unemployment rate data have been released, and some data for January 19 are pending [10]. 04. Domestic Macroeconomics - In China, data such as foreign exchange reserves, CPI, PPI, M2 money supply, social financing scale, new RMB loans, and some data for January 19 (including GDP, retail sales, and unemployment rate) are involved [12]. 05. Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - According to the USDA's January report, in the 2025/26 global cotton market, production decreased by 77,000 tons to 2.6004 million tons, consumption increased by 68,000 tons to 2.5891 million tons, and the ending inventory decreased by 320,000 tons to 1.6217 million tons [15][16]. - In terms of major cotton - producing countries, China's production increased, while that of India and the US decreased. China's demand is expected to increase, and other countries' demand is stable [16]. 07. US Cotton Exports - As of January 8, 2026, the US has cumulatively signed 1.623 million tons of cotton exports for the 2025/26 season, reaching 61.11% of the expected export volume, and has shipped 748,000 tons, with a shipment rate of 46.08%. China has cumulatively signed 85,000 tons, accounting for 5.26% of the signed volume, and has shipped 36,000 tons [20]. 08. Industrial and Commercial Inventories - As of the end of December 2025, the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.7847 million tons, an increase of 23.51% from the previous month and 1.75% from the same period last year. The industrial cotton inventory of textile enterprises increased steadily. The total industrial and commercial inventory was 6.7685 million tons, an increase of 113,900 tons from last year and 435,600 tons from the previous month [23]. 09. November Cotton and Cotton Yarn Imports Both Increased - In November 2025, China's cotton import volume was 120,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 34.4% and a year - on - year increase of 9.4%. From January to November, the cumulative import was 890,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 64.0%. In the 2025/26 season, the cumulative import was 310,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.8% [26]. - In November 2025, China's cotton yarn import volume was 150,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 25% and a month - on - month increase of about 7.14%. From January to November, the cumulative import was 1.33 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3% [26]. 10. December Cotton Yarn Output Increased Year - on - Year - In December, the price of pure cotton yarn was weak in the first half and then increased with the rise of Zheng cotton. The actual transaction of cotton yarn did not increase as much as cotton, so the industry profit shrank severely, especially for inland spinning enterprises, which had more production - limiting phenomena. The new textile project in Kashgar was put into production, and the spinning capacity in Xinjiang expanded further. The output of pure cotton yarn in December was 491,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.3%. From January to December, the cumulative output was 5.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.8% [27]. 11. US Cotton Weather - As of January 6, the drought index in the main US cotton - producing areas continued to rise, and it is expected that the drought will intensify in the first quarter due to the weak La Nina climate in the Northern Hemisphere winter [33]. 12. Xinjiang Cotton Inspection - As of January 15, 2026, 1097 cotton processing enterprises in China have processed and inspected 30,650,301 bales of cotton, with a weight of 6.9188 million tons [35]. 13. Textile Industry Inventory - In November, the inventory of the textile industry was 4.084 trillion yuan, a month - on - month and year - on - year increase of 21 billion yuan. The finished - product inventory was 2.184 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 4 billion yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 1 billion yuan. The inventory of textile and clothing was 1.872 trillion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 6 billion yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 93 billion yuan. The finished - product inventory was 992 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 16 billion yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 64 billion yuan [39]. 14. Domestic Demand Remained Strong - In November 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 4.3898 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 5.17%. From January to November, the cumulative retail sales were 45.6067 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.0%. The retail sales of clothing, footwear, hats, and knitted textiles were 154.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5% and a month - on - month increase of 4.83%. From January to November, the cumulative retail sales were 1.3597 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5% [44]. 15. External Demand Exports Weakened - In December 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were $25.992 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 7.35% and a month - on - month increase of 8.89%. From January to December, the cumulative exports were $293.767 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 2.42% [47]. 16. US Clothing Retail in October 2025 - In October 2025, the retail sales of US clothing and clothing accessories were $27.128 billion, a year - on - year increase of 5.72% and a month - on - month increase of 0.87%. From January to October, the cumulative retail sales were $264.202 billion, a year - on - year increase of 5.34%. In September 2025, the inventory of US clothing and clothing accessories retailers was $58.488 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.39% and a month - on - month increase of 0.48% [51]. 17. US Textile and Clothing Imports in October 2025 - In October 2025, the US textile and clothing import volume was 8.224 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 22.95% and a month - on - month decrease of 12.36%. The import amount was $8.414 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 18.79% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.82%. From January to October, the cumulative import volume was 87.005 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 0.63%. The import volume of US cotton products was 1.308 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.87% and a month - on - month decrease of 15.58%. The import amount was $3.419 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 20.47% and a month - on - month decrease of 14.65%. From January to October, the cumulative import volume was 14.431 billion square meters, a year - on - year increase of 0.82% [56]. 18. Warehouse Receipts Increased Rapidly - As of January 15, the number of warehouse receipts was 9,329, with 1,209 valid forecasts, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 10,538, an increase of 576 from the previous week [58]. 19. Non - Commercial Long Positions Decreased - As of January 6, the net long positions of non - commercial futures and options in the ICE cotton futures market were - 28,220, an increase of 1,614 from the previous week. The net long positions of non - commercial futures only were - 28,920, an increase of 2,037. The net long positions of commodity index funds were 54,110, an increase of 550 [62]. 20. Load Changes - As of January 16, the load index of pure cotton yarn mills was 62.10, a decrease of 0.20 from the previous week; the load of rayon yarn was 47.50, the same as the previous week; the load of pure polyester yarn was 55.54, a decrease of 1.16 from the previous week. The load of yarn and grey fabric decreased seasonally [66]. 21. Industrial Chain Inventory - The cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 32.72 days, an increase of 1.32 days from the previous week; the cotton yarn inventory was 26.90 days, a decrease of 0.14 days from the previous week; the inventory of pure cotton grey fabric was 36.60 days, an increase of 0.04 days from the previous week. As it enters the off - season of consumption, inventory begins to accumulate [70]. 22. Industrial Chain Profit - The sales of the pure cotton yarn market basically continued the previous week's trend, mainly with rigid - demand sales. The demand for high - count and combed yarn above 40S was good, while the demand for medium - and low - count yarn was insufficient. Spinning mills were under pressure. The theoretical cash flow (excluding depreciation) of inland spinning enterprises had a loss of about 500 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit (including depreciation) of Xinjiang spinning enterprises was about - 50 yuan/ton. The operating rate of inland spinning enterprises continued to decline, and the inventory increased. Xinjiang spinning enterprises maintained a high operating rate, and the inventory pressure was relatively small [75].
长江期货棉纺产业周报：震荡运行-20260119
Changjiang Securities·2026-01-19 05:31