Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Plastics and PP showed a pattern of rising and then falling this week. Plastics had a weekly gain for four consecutive weeks, while PP's weekly line turned negative. The market is currently facing a risk of correction in the short - term due to factors such as significant increases in warehouse receipts and the seasonal off - peak demand [3][8][14]. - For plastics, although the cost support has improved and the spot trading has picked up, and the upstream and mid - stream inventories have significantly decreased, the downstream is in the seasonal off - peak season, and the replenishment may not be sustainable. Attention should be paid to the changes in geopolitical conflicts, and if the market sentiment weakens, the market may return to the previous downward trend [4]. - For PP, although the cost of propylene has been relatively strong recently, the proportion of externally purchased propylene production capacity is only about 4%, and the cost support is not significant. The weighted gross profit is at a neutral level compared to the same period. The market is affected by factors such as low - level operation of production, seasonal off - peak demand, and significant increases in warehouse receipts on January 13th, and there is an opportunity to short the market [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - Plastics: Opened slightly lower at 6662 on Monday, dropped to the weekly low of 6607, then continued the upward trend of last week, reached the highest of 6888 on Thursday, and finally closed at 6695 yuan/ton on Friday, with an amplitude of 281 points in the whole week [3][14]. - PP: Opened slightly lower at 6662 on Monday, dropped to the weekly low of 6431, then continued the upward trend of last week, reached the highest of 6664 on Thursday, and finally closed at 6496 yuan/ton on Friday, with an amplitude of 233 points in the whole week [8][14]. - Funds: As of this Friday, the main positions of PE were 490,000 lots, showing a slight decrease, and the market rebounded with a reduction in positions [16]. - Warehouse Receipts: As of this Friday, the number of L and PP warehouse receipts was 10,627 and 17,508 lots respectively [27]. - Spreads: As of this Friday, the main spread of plastics was 65 yuan/ton, which was slightly higher than the neutral level in the same period; the main spread of PP was - 27 yuan/ton, which was at a low level in the same period. The L59 spread was - 28 yuan/ton, and the PP59 spread was - 38 yuan/ton. The LP05 spread was 199 yuan/ton [21][24][30]. - Valuation: As of this Wednesday, the weighted gross profit of LLDPE was - 215 yuan/ton, with a significant recovery in the gross profit of MTO and ethylene; the weighted gross profit of PP was - 748 yuan/ton, and the PDH gross profit was still at a low level in the same period [32]. 2. Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply - Plastics: This week, the PE production was 670,000 tons, with a significant decline in the operating rate and a capacity utilization rate of 82%, and the cumulative year - on - year increase was 9.8%. The supply pressure was mainly concentrated in HD, and the cumulative production of LD was significantly lower than that of last year. Some plants are planned to restart in the next period, and the production is expected to increase. According to the balance sheet forecast, the year - on - year production at the end of January is expected to be 9.1% [43]. - PP: This week, the PP production was 780,000 tons, showing a decline for four consecutive weeks, with a capacity utilization rate of 76%, and the cumulative year - on - year production increase was 6.3%. The production is expected to increase slightly next week, as the profit of externally purchased propylene has improved and the enterprise's enthusiasm for starting production has increased. According to the balance sheet forecast, the cumulative year - on - year production at the end of January is expected to be 13.9%, and the cumulative year - on - year production from January to April is expected to be 9.6%. There are no production expansion plans in the first half of the year, and the supply pressure is expected to gradually ease [46]. - Import and Export - PE: From January to November 2025, the average monthly export volume was 90,000 tons (a year - on - year increase of 31%), and the average monthly import volume was 1.1 million tons (a year - on - year decrease of 4.0%). In November 2025, the import volume was 1.06 million tons (a month - on - month increase of 5% and a year - on - year decrease of 10%). By variety, the cumulative year - on - year changes of LL, LD, and HE were - 9.8%, 9.1%, and - 5.4% respectively [49][52]. - PP: From January to November 2025, the average monthly import volume was 280,000 tons (a year - on - year decrease of 9%), and the average monthly export volume was 260,000 tons (a year - on - year increase of 28%). In November 2025, the PP import volume was 230 tons (a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%), and the export volume was 260,000 tons (a year - on - year increase of 38%) [55][58]. - Downstream Demand - PE: This week, the downstream capacity utilization rate of PE was 41%, showing a seasonal decline. From January to November 2025, the cumulative year - on - year increase in the apparent consumption of PE was 11%. The total retail sales of consumer goods from January to November 2025 was 45.6 trillion yuan (a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.0%), with a continuous decline in the cumulative year - on - year growth rate for five months. The downstream agricultural film operating rate has declined for eight consecutive weeks, and the operating rate of PE packaging film has significantly declined [60][62]. - PP: This week, the downstream operating rate of PP has declined for five consecutive weeks, among which the BOPP operating rate has increased and the PP non - woven fabric has weakened. From January to November 2025, the year - on - year increase in the apparent consumption of PP was 16.9%. In November 2025, the apparent consumption of PP was 3.51 million tons. This week, the plastic braiding operating rate has declined for six consecutive weeks, and the BOPP operating rate remains at a high level [64][67]. - Plastic Products Export: From January to November 2025, the average monthly export value of plastics and products was 11.6 billion US dollars (a year - on - year increase of 0.5%), and the proportion of the export value to the United States was 14%. In November 2025, the cumulative export value of plastics and products was 12 billion US dollars (a year - on - year decrease of 1.1% and a month - on - month increase of 13%), and the proportion of the export value to the United States was 13% [69]. - Inventory: This week, the commercial inventory of PE was 860,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 50,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.12 million tons), and the commercial inventory of PP was 700,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 50,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 110,000 tons). As of this Thursday, the petrochemical inventory of polyolefins was 530,000 tons. This week, the enterprise inventory of PE was 350,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 45,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 25,000 tons), and the enterprise inventory of PP was 430,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 40,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 30,000 tons). This week, the social inventory of PE was 480,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 0 and a year - on - year increase of 100,000 tons), and the trader inventory of PP was 190,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 11,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 60,000 tons) [72][74][77][79]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheets of PE and PP from 2014 to 2026, the monthly supply - demand balance sheets of PE and PP in 2026, and the balance sheet forecasts of PE and PP contracts such as PE05, PE09, PE01, PP05, PP09, and PP01 [80][81][82][83]. 3. Strategies - Plastics: For single - sided trading, take a slightly bearish view with a light position. Pay attention to the range of 6,550 - 6,800 yuan/ton for L2605. For arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach. For hedging, take a wait - and - see approach [5][7]. - PP: For single - sided trading, take a slightly bearish view with a light position. Pay attention to the range of 6,350 - 6,600 yuan/ton for PP2605. For arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach. For hedging, as the market maintains a contango structure, industrial customers can sell short at high prices when the opportunity arises [11].
聚烯烃周报：仓单显著增加，短期面临回调风险-20260119
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2026-01-19 05:15